Well, this is going to be an extended post. At first, I thought of splitting it in two, but it’s really one subject, and really, if you have nothing better to do on New Year’s Eve than to read this (as I have nothing better to do than to write it), then you probably need a lengthy diversion. So, a look back at my predictions from last year, and a look ahead at what we can expect in 2013.
Okay, first let’s look at last year’s predictions. You can read them here, for what they’re worth, but I’m going to summarize.
As in the past, I’ll give myself a letter grade and note the degree of difficulty on a one to 10 scale.
I said that there was someone loonier than Herman Cain all set to run for the Senate. I was wrong only in the sense that once again, there was (were?–grammarians, help me here) more than one. In this category I put every candidate that had anything to say about rape, since they always seemed to find something good to say about it. Not to say they were the only loony ones, but didn’t they shine?
Grade: A+ DOD: 1
I predicted Willard would win the nomination; tepidly predicted Jindal or Rubio for VP; hopefully, but with a lack of confidence, predicted that Ron Paul would run third party; predicted Obama would win; and predicted that our side would be more enthusiastic than theirs.
I’m giving myself a B on this one, since I got the big stuff right, and only missed where I said in advance I wasn’t sure. The DOD on this one was 5.
I predicted the Republicans would retain control of the House.
Grade: A, DOD 1
I predicted the Republicans would take the senate “unless [the Republicans] nominate a slew of Christine O’Donnells”. This one is unscoreable (I claim a copyright on that word. My spell checker says it hadn’t existed before I wrote it, and who am I to argue with Microsoft?) . I think on balance I was right, but I’m way too lazy to count the precise number of crazies that led to the Republican Senate disaster. And, in some cases, the losers didn’t fit the stereotype. I don’t think Tommy Thompson is crazy-at least no more than Mitch McConnell- but he lost too.
Grade: C+, DOD 7
I predicted Elizabeth Warren would win.
Grade: A. DOD: 7
I predicted that we as a nation would do nothing to deal with our current economic crisis or prevent its recurrence. By “nothing” I meant nothing positive, so I was right.
Grade: A. DOD 0
I predicted that bankers would continue to make outsize salaries, whether the banks make money or not.
Grade: A. DOD minus 10. I mean what was I thinking . That was like predicting that we’d all continue breathing or else we’d die.
I predicted the folks at Fox would make Al Gore jokes when it got cold and that the Obama people might do something worthwhile about global warming under the radar. Here my laziness prevents me from finding links to prove I was right, but I was.
Grade: A. DOD 1
I predicted the Ipad three would be indistinguishable from the Ipad 2,but would have Siri, which was withheld from the 2 without cause. I also predicted I’d buy one. Wrong on all counts, except about Siri, assuming you think the retina display is a big deal.
Grade: F. DOD 3
I correctly predicted that someone would win the Oscars and that some famous people would die and others would misbehave. These obvious predictions were offset by my insistence on believing the Red Sox would come back, which they didn’t, but wait until next year.
GRADE: C DOD 0
On to the predictions.
Before I started to write this post, it occurred to me that making predictions was a dismal task, due to the fact that this year, at least politically, seemed to bid fair to be a tedious repeat of the last couple of years, with our betters fiddling while Rome continues to burn. When I reviewed last year’s report card, therefore, I realized that all I really had to do was reprint my 2011 predictions, and then I see here that that’s pretty much what I said last year, except, it being an election year, some election predictions were needed. However, this year those 2011 predictions seem perfectly serviceable, so I will repeat them, noting those rare instances where modifications are required. Having confessed my errors last year, I have not repeated the clunkers.
The United States Senate will make a gesture toward reforming its rules, but will do nothing meaningful. To the extent anything meaningful is proposed, it will be defeated in response to cries of unfairness from the same Republicans, including the Fox News people, who condemned filibusters when Democrats threatened to use them (and didn’t because they were intimidated).
Republicans will make unreasonable demands in exchange for increasing the debt limit, most likely cuts in programs such as Medicaid. Unlike Clinton, Obama will be unable or unwilling to make the Republicans look like petty obstructionists bent on damaging the middle class. The Republicans will get what they want, with a fig leaf for Obama, who will proclaim that the deal was great for the country, thus undercutting any Democrat who comes out against it. Obama will earn beltway credibility for “bi-partisanship”. The deal will contain the seeds of yet another such “crisis”. Pundits on the left will therefore warn that we are being set up for another betrayal, but they will be ignored.
The latter prediction is sort of an all purpose prediction. It applies to the fiscal “cliff” farce as well as the coming debt limit farce. However, I’m wrong in advance about Obama getting beltway credibility for bi-partisanship. Just as the parties are always equally responsible for Republican caused deadlock, Obama, despite his eagerness to compromise, is never given credit (or blame) for that willingness. Like the Democrats generally, he is always a stumbling block as intransigent as any Republican. Oh-oh, even as I’m writing this, I see I’m right in advance about him caving to unreasonable demands, although to give Obama his due, Krugman says the cave is not as bad as we’ve come to expect, though as Krugman also points out, the seeds of a new crisis, and another cave-in, have been sown.
Obama will propose cuts to social security. In this context, the term “cut” includes, but is not necessarily limited to, direct cuts in present benefits, raising the retirement age, or changing the way benefit amounts are determined so that, over time, the real value of benefits declines. Republicans will go along with his suggestions, and then successfully accuse Democrats of trying to destroy Social Security. Economists who know what they are talking about will point out that there is no economic need to cut Social Security, and that lifting the payroll tax limit, a relatively painless step, would assure benefits far into the future (assuming, of course, that we avoid economic or environmental collapse). These economists will be ignored, due to the fact that they have been right about economic issues in the past, thus disqualifying them from any participation in the national discourse.
Okay, he’s already done this, but he’ll do it again, when the time is ripe. Oh, and look, the Republicans are already circling like buzzards.
Republicans will demand cuts in all manner of public programs (over and above those they extort in exchange for increasing the debt limit). They will do so on the grounds that the deficit is out of control. Many Democrats will join the chorus. No one within the Beltway will note that the programs being attacked involve sums that are insignificant in comparison to the amount given to the rich by way of the tax cuts the Republicans extorted in 2010.
Actually, there’s a reasonably good chance I’ll be wrong on this one so far as Congressional Democrats are concerned. They may actually have absorbed some lessons from the last few years. As to the rest of the prediction, it’s really a no-brainer. When do the Republicans not demand cuts in social programs? But then, I may be wrong about that too. If they can’t find Democrats to give them cover, they may not want to go it alone.
The media will continue to portray the Republican party as the party of fiscal responsibility and the parties will continue to be equally responsible for the stalemate in Washington.
Congress will do nothing about global warming. In fact, the entire country will continue to pretend that nothing is happening, even while we suffer through one of the hottest summers on record.
Okay, I have to alter the global warming thing a bit. The country appears to be waking up, but the politicians continue to slumber. Oh, wait, Obama mentioned global warming in his victory speech. Who knows, maybe he’ll mention it in his inaugural address. That should cement his legacy.
China will open up an even bigger lead in green technology.
Unemployment will remain high. Republicans will blame Obama, while continuing to prevent him from doing anything about it.
I should note here that I am not necessarily predicting that Obama and/or the Democrats will actually attempt to do anything significant about unemployment; only that if they do, the Republicans will block it and then blame Democrats for doing nothing.
I made some other predictions on non-political issues, which also appear likely to come true.
The Ipad will be updated, and I will find a reason why I absolutely need one, but Lon Seidman will get one first.
Okay, I actually skipped the last two Ipads, but the battery on my Ipad 2 is getting weak, so I actually may have a reason. As to Lon, I have faith in him, and by the way congrats to Lon and his wife on the other new addition to their family expected next year.
Lindsey Lohan, whoever she may be, will continue to self destruct, but people will cease to care, as some other celebrity will blaze new trails of tabloid documented self destruction.
I have no idea if Lindsey Lohan is still alive, but if she is, then I stand by this prediction, unless I was right the last time, in which case I guess I’m wrong now.
I will work my way through all of this century’s episodes of Dr. Who.
Done and done, but I’m ready for the new ones as soon as they come out.
Depressing on the political front, isn’t it? At least I have the new Ipad to look forward to.
Finally, I end with my summation from last year:
As to the messy and bizarre little details, we will have to await events. Of this we can be certain. The decline continues; not to be abated in this electoral cycle, absent a truly extraordinary miracle. The world gets warmer, the people get poorer, and the barbarians are at the gates, in the form of an unholy alliance of the plutocrats and the theocrats. I’ll leave the rest to Randy:
The end of an empire is messy at best
And this empire is ending
Like all the rest
Like the Spanish Armada adrift on the sea
We’re adrift in the land of the brave
And the home of the free
No, wait. I can’t leave it there. I’m under strict orders (or was last year, and I think the directive still holds) from a certain someone not to be a cranky old man. So forget about what Randy has to say, and forget about all my dire premonitions. Take a bit of the advice from Monty Python that I’ve repeated so often:
Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse.
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle
Don’t grumble, give a whistle
And this’ll help things turn out for the best…
And…always look on the bright side of life…
Always look on the light side of life…
To anyone who’s made it this far, Happy New Year!
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