Via Talking Points Memo, we learn that Giuliani’s trend lines look eerily like McCain’s, indicating that Rudy may be riding for a fall reminiscent of Mr. Straight Talk.
Since early March, Giuliani’s support has fallen by an estimated 8 percentage points. McCain’s fell by 10 points since January. And the rate of decline has been a bit steeper for Giuliani than for McCain. The saving grace for Giuliani has been that he started his decline from a higher point, around 33%, while McCain’s slump started down from 25%
As the frontrunners go down, we can expect other to go up, which is sort of what has happened. Thompson and Romney are both rising, but they’re apparently not sopping up all the folks abandoning McCain and Giuliani, as “None of the Above” has now taken a lead among Republicans.
It’s quite likely that as Thompson and/or Romney rises to the top, the increased attention to the reality behind the media masks each presents will lead to similar declines in their support. It just may be that even Republicans are not interested in nominating hollow men, and that’s all they’ve got. One of them has to end up on top, if only be default, since the party can’t nominate None, despite his/her superior qualifications. There’s a decent chance that the choice will be so uninspiring that his (no hers in the field) support in the party will be tepid at best. Imagine what that will mean for the candidate’s prospects of drawing support from the not undead.
The Democrats can still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, particularly if the candidate runs a cautious, trying not to lose campaign. Whoever it is has to realize that people are looking for someone with a can do type of attitude, with the can-do geared toward doing things people want. First and most important rule: Ignore the beltway press, except when you’re attacking them.
3 Comments