The following post has a bit of history to it. A person quite near and dear to me has suggested that I have, of late, become somewhat negative in my attitude toward just about everything. I insist that I am merely stating the facts and responding to reality, but she insists that I am far too much of a glass half empty type of guy. Thus, this post, which has gone through two major editions, the second positing a glass literally brimming over. I told her to take her pick, and she suggested I post them both. I have therefore decided to merge them, and give my readers their choice of which set of predictions seems most probable to come to fruition. Pardon the repetition, but that is just an artifact of the piece’s evolution. I will, by the way, be checking myself, and should both this blog and this writer still exist on December 31 of 2011, I will duly report the results.
Post One: The Pessimist
Chris Hayes recently suggested, via Twitter, that we bloggers write year end posts listing the things we were wrong about in the past year. This would be a salutary exercise, I admit, but one I decline to undertake, for a number of very good reasons. First, it would require me to re-read my posts from last year, a form of torture I would not wish on anyone, even myself. (Being lazy doesn’t help either.)Second, the post would go on far too long. Third…well, there must be a third.
I have therefore decided to follow Hayes’ advice next year, with a caveat. This post will contain my predictions for the coming year. Next year, if this blog survives, I will check on my prognostications, and duly acknowledge whatever errors I may make. I sincerely hope that I make quite a few, since the future doesn’t look good, so far as I can see.
Let’s start with local stuff:
1. The Connecticut legislature will suddenly discover that it has the ability to buck the governor, and will do so whenever Malloy wants to do anything that is in the long term best interests of the state.
Okay, that’s it. My interest in state politics, never very high, has now waned. Now, on to the nation at large.
1. The United States Senate will make a gesture toward reforming its rules, but will do nothing meaningful. To the extent anything meaningful is proposed, it will be defeated in response to cries of unfairness from the same Republicans, including the Fox News people, who condemned filibusters when Democrats threatened to use them (and didn’t because they were intimidated).
2. Republicans will make unreasonable demands in exchange for increasing the debt limit, most likely cuts in programs such as Medicaid. Unlike Clinton, Obama will be unable or unwilling to make the Republicans look like petty obstructionists bent on damaging the middle class. The Republicans will get what they want, with a fig leaf for Obama, who will proclaim that the deal was great for the country, thus undercutting any Democrat who comes out against it. Obama will earn beltway credibility for “bi-partisanship”. The deal will contain the seeds of yet another such “crisis”. Pundits on the left will therefore warn that we are being set up for another betrayal, but they will be ignored.
3. Obama will propose cuts to social security. In this context, the term “cut” includes, but is not necessarily limited to, direct cuts in present benefits, raising the retirement age, or changing the way benefit amounts are determined so that, over time, the real value of benefits declines. Republicans will go along with his suggestions, and then successfully accuse Democrats of trying to destroy Social Security. Economists who know what they are talking about will point out that there is no economic need to cut Social Security, and that lifting the payroll tax limit, a relatively painless step, would assure benefits far into the future (assuming, of course, that we avoid economic or environmental collapse). These economists will be ignored, due to the fact that they have been right about economic issues in the past, thus disqualifying them from any participation in the national discourse.
4. Republicans will demand cuts in all manner of public programs (over and above those they extort in exchange for increasing the debt limit). They will do so on the grounds that the deficit is out of control. Many Democrats will join the chorus. No one within the Beltway will note that the programs being attacked involve sums that are insignificant in comparison to the amount given to the rich by way of the tax cuts the Republicans extorted in 2010.
5. The media will continue to portray the Republican party as the party of fiscal responsibility.
6. We will continue mired in Afghanistan. The Republicans will hold war funding hostage to some horrible demand. No one will accuse them of not supporting the troops, and they will continue to be acknowledged to be the stronger party when it comes to foreign policy and “fighting terrorism”, the massive evidence to the contrary notwithstanding. By the way, they will get whatever they are demanding.
7. Congress will do nothing about global warming. In fact, the entire country will continue to pretend that nothing is happening, even while we suffer through one of the hottest summers on record.
8. China will open up an even bigger lead in green technology.
9. Unemployment will remain high. Republicans will blame Obama, while continuing to prevent him from doing anything about it.
Alright, I know what you’re thinking. These are all slam dunks. There’s not a chance in the world I could be wrong on any of these. Well, one can hope, can’t one, and is it my fault that 2011 comes with its history pre-written?
Okay, I’ll go out on a limb. This is one I’m not totally sure about:
Joe Liberman will announce he will run as an Independent, finally giving us liberals something to smile about. National Democrats will come to terms with the fact that one good vote is not enough to restore Liberman to favor and that the people of Connecticut are ready to kick him out of the club, and that they don’t really care what the Beltway crowd thinks.
Okay, now for the optimistic predictions, shorn of the introductory paragraphs, which remained the same in both incarnations.
Let’s start with local stuff:
1. The Connecticut legislature will continue to cave to the governor, thus allowing Malloy to effectively govern. At no time will the legislative leadership frustrate his initiatives due to petty intra-party strife.
Okay, that’s it. Once again, I grow bored. Lets get on to the nation at large.
1. Immediately after reconvening, The United States Senate, under the energized leadership of Harry Reid, will completely reform its rules. No longer will Tom Coburn get to hold up legislation forever. No longer will a minority be able to impose its will on the majority. While it is true that no meaningful legislation will pass the House, at least Obama will be able to get his appointees confirmed. To the surprise of everyone, Senate Democrats will totally ignore the cries of unfairness from the same Republicans, including the Fox News people, who condemned filibusters when Democrats threatened to use them.
2. Republicans will make unreasonable demands in exchange for increasing the debt limit, most likely cuts in programs such as Medicaid. Obama will stand firm, and like Bill Clinton before him, make the Republican leadership objects of ridicule. Obama will earn beltway credibility for “standing up to the Republicans”. Not only will the Republicans back down, but they will agree not to engage in obstructionist tactics in the future.
3. Obama will strongly defend Social Security and expose the Republican disinformation campaign for what it is. Like Clinton, who got a minimum wage increase through a Republican Congress, he will manipulate the Republicans into voting to abolish the ceiling on the payroll tax, thereby solving Social Security’s out year problems.
4. Republicans will demand cuts in all manner of public programs (over and above those they attempt to extort in exchange for increasing the debt limit). They will do so on the grounds that the deficit is out of control. Not a single Democrat will join them. The entire Beltway pundit class will express disgust and dismay that the programs being attacked involve sums that are insignificant in comparison to the amount given to the rich by way of the tax cuts the Republicans extorted this year. Exposed for what they are, the Republicans will back down.
5. The media will stop portraying the Republican party as the party of fiscal responsibility.
6. We will get out of Afghanistan. The Republicans will attempt to hold the necessary funding hostage to some horrible demand. Everyone will accuse them of not supporting the troops and they will forever lose their reputation as the stronger party when it comes to foreign policy and “fighting terrorism”. In the face of massive outrage, particularly from the media, they will back down and fund the withdrawal.
7. Congress will take meaningful and effective action to combat global warming. The entire country will join the rest of the civilized world and stop pretending that nothing is happening. While next summer will be the hottest on record, it will represent the peak of the problem, as the U.S. leads the world toward a cooler tomorrow.
8. The U.S. will overtake China in green technology.
9. Unemployment will remain high. Republicans will blame Obama, while continuing to prevent him from doing anything about it, but the nation will see through the pretense, and the Republicans’ approval will plummet, with all polls showing them set to be massively “refudiated” at the polls in 2012.
10. Joe Lieberman will announce he will run as an Independent, finally giving us liberals something to smile about. National Democrats will come to terms with the fact that one good vote is not enough to restore Liberman to favor, that the people of Connecticut are ready to kick him out of the club, and that they don’t really care what the Beltway crowd thinks.
So, it’s going to be a wonderful year. I can’t see how I could be wrong on any of these, providing, of course, that there is a seismic shift in American discourse, or our brains are taken over by some benevolent alien race (I have been watching too much Dr. Who – see below).
To each of these posts I appended some apolitical predictions which were more or less the same. You might quibble with some of my political predictions, but I’d bet real money on these:
1. The Ipad will be updated, and I will find a reason why I absolutely need one, but Lon Seidman will get one first.
2. Lindsey Lohan, whoever she may be, will continue to self destruct, but people will cease to care, as some other celebrity will blaze new trails of tabloid documented self destruction.
3. I will work my way through all of this century’s episodes of Dr. Who.
4. The entire world will continue to marvel at how much all of our lives have changed now that you can download Beatles songs from Itunes.
5. The Red Sox will have a good year. And in the end, isn’t any year a good year in which Red Sox fans can chant “Yankees Suck” with full throated enthusiasm and some measure of truth?
So that’s it. Next year, I’m bound to score in the 90th percentile on one of these sets of predictions. Anyone care to place bets on which one?
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