It has been much remarked in the blogosphere, though not so much in the mainstream media, that turnout among Democrats has been extra high this year. A case in point is our fair town of Groton, where the votes cast for the top candidates are as follows. (All figures courtesy of the Courant, Dems here, Forces of the Darkside here):
Obama: 1,403
Clinton: 1,285
McCain: 686
Romney: 405
Huckster: 112
Total R: 1203
Groton registered voters are historically split fairly evenly among Democrats, Independents and Republicans, with Democrats holding a slight registration edge over Republicans. However, Republican turnout is usually higher than Democratic turnout, which accounts for the fact that Republicans have dominated the Town Council time out of mind.
Yesterday, the losing candidate (Hillary) got more votes than the total votes cast for all the remaining Republican candidates. Amazingly, Groton Republican outdid the state as a whole. In Groton, their top three combined got about 93% of Clinton’s vote; statewide they got about 84%. (Figures here and here) (If we factor in the statewide Democratic registration edge, Clinton gets fewer votes than the three Republicans, but the total Democratic vote still indicates a turnout almost twice as high as Republican turnout). What does that tell us? I think it tells us that the pollsters should be adding another choice when they poll Republicans: None of the above. Republicans don’t like their choices. Independents must like those Republican choices even less. As I pointed out above, Democratic turnout in Groton usually lags Republican turnout , so we have to work hard to turnout voters. Republicans, particularly in the more affluent districts where they tend to congregate, usually turn themselves out (I suspect that with few exceptions, that is a trend that holds statewide). What if they don’t this year? Where are the foot soldiers going to come from to turn them out? I have a feeling the party stalwarts are as uninspired as the Republican masses, and, at least here in Groton, I’m not sure that after all these years of phoning it in (comparatively) that the Republicans would know how to do it if they wanted to.
By comparison, Democrats, and I suspect a lot of Independents, are ready to vote for either of our candidates (or a yellow dog for that matter) to get rid of Bush and the horse he rode in on. The Republicans will roll out the slime machine, but people are so disgusted with the present government that it may not work this time, particularly because we’ll be deep in recession by the time November rolls around. Democrats here and everywhere are going to be working hard to get people to the polls, and this year, unlike any other, they are going to find their job a lot easier.
As long as we don’t form a circular firing squad we should do fine. It won’t hurt if the Republicans form one of their own.
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