Here’s an article titled SNDY May Soon Indict Trump’s Kids to Force Him Out of Office.
I’m not disagreeing that there’s a real possibility that Erik and Don, Jr., even (oh please God!) Ivanka, will soon be indicted.
I just don’t buy into the “force him out of office” logic.
We all know enough about Trump to know that he is totally narcissistic and cares only about himself. Sure, he’d probably ratherthat his kids weren’t in jail, but if it’s him or them, then it’s him. So this means there are two possible Trump reactions to such indictments.
First, he could issue a wholesale pardon. I’d put this at a 40% probability, as it puts him at risk.
Second, he could bloviate about the unfairness of the unfounded persecution of his family and do nothing else. I’d put this at a 60% probability.
That adds up to 100%. The chance of him resigning in some sort of deal that gets his kids off the hook: 0%.
If he does pardon them, and the charges are handed off to state authorities, then he is left with two options: cut a deal or let his kids rot in jail. Odds that he chooses “let them rot”: 100%.
The above presumes no indictment of Individual-1 himself, or any clear cut indication that such an indictment will be handed down on January 21, 2021. If he is capable of absorbing the fact that he might face prison himself after that date he might work a deal that also gets his kids off the hook, as long as he is dehooked in the process.
That raises the question of whether the prosecutors should cut such a deal. I am willing to give Gerald Ford the benefit of the doubt. I think he thought his Nixon pardon would heal the nation’s wounds, etc. I never believed it, but I think he really did. But time has proven beyond doubt that it was the wrong thing to do, since it taught the right that the consequences of political crimes were not significant enough to deter the crimes. Sort of like the fact that the banks never learned anything from tanking the economy in 2008, given that they got a pardon in the form of a bailout.
It remains my firm opinion that the genius is more likely to die in office than resign or be impeached. The question is: what will he do to distract from his crimes over the course of the next two years. If we can avoid a pointless war we’ll be lucky indeed.
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