Now that we are approaching the conclusion of what is perhaps the greatest political surrender in American history, it’s time to look back and ask ourselves. How did CTBlue do? Did his predictions here and here come to pass?
Well, as you can see above, I get a passing grade. I got a lot of the details wrong, as I thought Congress would lead the way to the surrender. In a way they (with Obama’s passive as always acquiescence) did, by putting the issue off, a strategic blunder so massive one stands in awe. I certainly did not anticipate the fact that Obama would embrace the issue as his own, and bravely lead the Democrats off a cliff.
So, how did I earn my C? Well, I got the denouement right. And I did anticipate Obama’s willingness to cave, though not his absolute eagerness to do so:
The only question that remains: Will Obama stick to his recently announced position (so far he is, but we’ve heard that before), or “compromise” by giving the Republicans everything they want?
Stay tuned, but I predict it won’t be pretty.
Well, though I framed it as a question, I think it’s pretty clear which way I thought Obama would go. So, my passing grade.
I was hoping to get an F on this one, but never had much hope.
The road ahead is far easier to predict. The Republicans have taken Obama’s measure, and despite the fact that they will be in legal control of only one House of Congress, they are now effectively in control. No one will ever believe he will stand firm on anything, as indeed, he never has and never will. Obama got one year of unemployment benefits ( a relatively small benefit to the economy that will be of little political benefit to him and his party) in exchange for two years of tax cuts, meaning he’s going to have to give away something else a year from now to get the benefits extended again, and will no doubt be forced to give way on taxes again in time for the 2012 election. We can expect him to continue to lash out at the people who voted for him and actually believed his message of hope, while giving the Republicans more love than any Stockholm syndrome sufferer ever gave to his tormentors. Bill Clinton had his defects, but he learned quickly how to manipulate the Republicans and make them look bad. Obama hasn’t learned that, and never will. It’s going to be a very difficult two years, and, regretfully I must say we can’t afford four more years of Obama’s incompetence. Looking back, it would have been better if John McCain had won. The economy would be a total disaster right now, no doubt, but the Democrats would have complete control of the Congress right now and would be positioned to take the White House in 2012 with, perhaps, a candidate ready to lead. There’s no reason to think Obama will change if re-elected, so even if he wins we will get four more years of Republican rule, regardless of who theoretically controls the Congress. That means, by the way, four more years of recession/depression because the Republicans will insist on policies designed to keep the economy depressed, which has benefitted them electorally, and Obama will be incapable of opposing them or even of articulating a counter-message the American people can understand and/or believe.
We are fucked.
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