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Adventures in Economics

I'm not sure there is any real point of contact between the topics covered by this post, other than the fact that both were provoked by articles in the New York Times. First up, is an article titled For Bond Investors, Ignoring Expert Advice Has Been Profitable.

The initial paragraphs point out that the experts have cautioned against investing in government bonds for years because they've been insisting that inflation is just around the corner. As the article puts it:

OVER the last three or four Januarys, the advice for investing in bonds has been remarkably consistent. It’s gone something like this: Beware of them, because inflation is going to rise, interest rates are going to spike and bond holders are going to lose enormous amounts of money.

Fans of Dean Baker and Paul Krugman knew otherwise, but then, in this country experts are people who are always wrong and never learn from their mistakes, or acknowledge them. I won't belabor the point that people who knew what they were talking about were saying years ago that high inflation was not in the cards.

But this is the part of the article that puzzled me. The article points out that U.S. borrowing costs are actually slightly higher than rates in Spain and Italy:

But seen from another angle, the interest rate the United States has to pay to borrow money for 10 years is far higher than that paid by economies that are not as solid. This shouldn’t be. Germany and France both pay less than 1 percent on their government bonds; even weak economics like Spain and Italy have been paying less to borrow money, with both under 2 percent.

“People at this point are incredibly confused,” said Heather Loomis, director of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. “This is the point where people are at risk of throwing in the towel.”

Ms. Loomis said there were at least three reasons for this situation. First, the global recovery hasn’t been consistent. Those low European borrowing rates have pushed investors in those countries to put their money into United States Treasuries, driving down the yield.

Okay, maybe I'm missing something. I thought that the “market” was largely driven by supply and demand. If investors are unwilling to invest in Spanish and Italian bonds, shouldn't that be driving their borrowing costs higher? After all, no one is claiming they can't borrow all the money they need, so someone is lending to them at those low rates. And if those anxious investors are seeking shelter in the warm embrace of the strong dollar, shouldn't that put the U.S. government in a position to charge a premium for that safety in the form of lower interest rates? Isn't Ms. Loomis saying that investors are paying less for a higher quality product when they buy U.S. bonds? How is this consistent with our official religion of capitalism in which the market knows all and always behaves rationally?

Now, for something completely different.

The always excellent Gretchen Morgenstern tells us that the SEC is aiding and abetting yet another device to keep corporate boards safe from their shareholders. You may recall that, in theory, shareholders own the corporation, and they get to do things like vote to decide who runs the corporation, how much they get paid, and who is on the board of directors, etc. In practice, of course, corporate boards are self-perpetuating entities that are chosen to rubber stamp executive decisions and divert corporate profits and employee pay into the pockets of the top executives. The SEC, under the courageous leadership of Mary Jo White, is determined to make sure things stay that way.

It seems that some pushy stockholders at Whole Foods are asking that they be allowed to vote on a proposal by shareholder James McRitchie to enable stockholders with a 3% stake in the company to nominate candidates for directors. But the SEC says no, because the proposal would be confusing, in light of a similar proposal put forward by Whole Foods Management:

The company’s lawyers wrote to the S.E.C., asking to exclude Mr. McRitchie’s proposal from its proxy. Under S.E.C. rules, companies can exclude a shareholder proposal from their proxy filings if it “directly conflicts with one of the company’s own proposals to be submitted to shareholders at the same meeting.”

Whole Foods made this argument, saying that it planned to put its own shareholder nomination proposal on the proxy and that Mr. McRitchie’s would conflict with it. Whole Foods said that including both proposals would “create the potential for inconsistent and ambiguous results.” A spokeswoman for Whole Foods declined to comment further.

But Mr. McRitchie’s proposal posed a direct challenge to Whole Foods’ version. The ownership hurdle for an investor under Whole Foods’ planned proposal was a whopping 9 percent. Not only was that three times Mr. McRitchie’s threshold, but no outside investor holds such a stake in the company. The biggest outside shareholder owns just over 5 percent.

via The New York Times

Note this especially: Whole Foods was merely saying that it planned to introduce a proposal. That means that any company wanting to use this dodge need not even anticipate shareholder action. All it need do is introduce a competing proposal that suits management's interests after a shareholder proposal comes in. In other words, the company can always and easily block shareholder initiatives.

As a lawyer, I must say how jealous I am of the Wall Street lawyers that represent companies like Whole Foods. Life is easy for them. Only they could expect to win on such transparent nonsense. If you tried anything similar to this on behalf of a human being, you'd be laughed out of court. But, when you own the court, everything works out so well.

Bear in mind, this is an SEC supposedly run by Democrats. Imagine what a job they'll do if Republicans take charge. Then again, it's hard to see how anyone could do worse.

David Duke’s empty threat

This is sort of a follow up to yesterday's post. Seems David Duke doesn't realize how successful he's been:

Former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke issued a warning to Republicans who have criticized House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) for speaking to a white nationalist group in 2002, saying they “better be looking over their shoulders.”

In an interview with Fusion, Duke said he has ties to politicians on both sides of the aisle, and he is ready to release names if criticism of Scalise continues:

via Huffington Post

No need to quote more. In a nutshell: If anyone criticizes Scalise for being a racist, Duke will expose them as racists too.

This is, indeed, the emptiest of threats. First off, as I pointed out yesterday, being a racist is now a feature, not a bug, for aspiring Republican candidates, except, perhaps, in obscure corners of Blue America. If Duke exposes Republican racists, he is all but endorsing them, and giving them a leg up on other Republicans whose racist bona fides have not been vouched for by Mr. Duke.

But, you say, Duke is only threatening to expose racists who are criticizing Scalise for being a racist. He's exposing hypocrisy, and that's the danger for these Republicans. To which I say, where have you been for the last 15 or so years? This is the Republican Party we're talking about. This is the party of David Vitter, the guy who patronized whores, who before and after being exposed proclaimed himself the patron saint of family values. He's still in the Senate, having been re-elected by the same people that have made Duke a household name. His hypocrisy cost him exactly zero votes, which is approximately the number of votes that Republican hypocrites have lost on that score nationwide since 2008, if not before.

So, there is absolutely no danger to any Republican seeking to have it both ways so far as Scalise is concerned. They can condemn him for his “bad judgment”, and when they are exposed as having similar “bad judgment”, they can reap some racist votes while ignoring the charge of hypocrisy, secure in the well founded belief that they have nothing to fear on that score from the press or their constituents. It's a win-win world for Republicans these days. Only Democrats are held to the standards that Republicans espouse: just ask Eliot Spitzer.

Nothing new to see here

Just read this, which was a shame as I had been considering writing something to the same effect, but now I feel like a bit of a cheater.

Anyway, I too have been watching the Steve Scalise “controversy” with some amused bemusement, as I really can't see how retaining a racist in a leadership position could possibly have a downside for the Republicans. They have been the party of racism for 50 years now, and, ever since we entered our “post racial” period with the election of a black president, they have been more obvious about their racism than ever before. If there were ever any doubt of that, it should have been dispelled by the Fox coverage of, and Republican reaction to, the killing of unarmed black men by white police officers, not to mention the more politically significant attempts to restrict black voter participation both through the work of a partisan Supreme Court and state legislatures that have enacted voter suppression laws, the entire object of which is to suppress black votes. In the short term, they can only gain by reinforcing their white male base's conviction that the Republican party works for them, instead of the corporate overlords the Republicans really serve. Cue Dylan's Only a Pawn in Their Game, as relevant now as the day it was written.

What is truly laughable are the press reports that say the Scalise incident might interfere with Republican attempts to broaden their appeal to minorities. To which, one must ask: what attempts to broaden their appeal to minorities? No fair counting things that Republicans say that minorities should like. What have they done that actually furthers the interests of minorities in any respect? What have they actually proposed that fits that description? In order to do any such thing, they would have to do something that furthered the interests of the bottom 99% as a whole, and that is something they simply will not do. They can reap those poor white votes and screw those poor white voters only so long as they can convince them that “they've got more than the blacks, don't complain”.

When I was in college I took a sociology class from an excellent professor. Among the things he pointed out was that the groups least likely to be conned by a prevailing ideology are those groups that are on the outs. The Jews were surely the most likely group of Germans to see Hitler for what he was. In this country, minorities, particularly blacks, are far more likely to see through governmental bullshit than whites. They are therefore far less likely to buy into Republican PR aimed at getting their votes than are whites. I mean, how many blacks believe Fox is fair and balanced. Now, how many whites? Far easier to just prevent them from voting.

So, what the Scalise incident demonstrates, above all else, is the fact that racism is gradually becoming more respectable. For a while there, Republicans really felt the need to pretend that they were not racists, while they sent coded racist messages to the electorate. They have found, in recent years, particularly with the election of a black president, that there really is no down side to coming out of the closet. At this point you might say they are where Tim Cook was about six months ago so far as his sexual orientation was concerned. They are not declared racists, but everyone knows they are, and they feel no urgent need to deny it.

Yet another year

Off and on I’ve ventured predictions for the New Year in this space. I actually started doing it this year, but sadly, at least in the political realm, there is nothing to be optimistic about, and, even more sadly, the prospect is so depressing that it’s not easy to find anything funny to say. As Randy Newman sang, “The End of an Empire is messy at best”.

On a personal level, the coming year actually bodes well, assuming the bankers don’t find a way to loot us all of every last shred of our money, so I’ve got nothing to complain about. So, I’ve decided not to complain. At least not tonight.

After all, as Eric Idle sang, we should “always look on the bright side of life”, so here’s hoping that a miracle occurs and the world takes a turn for the better. It could happen.

Happy New Year to anyone out there reading this. This blog will return to doom and gloom tomorrow.

Torture is just alright with them

This post was written on Christmas Eve, but I've delayed posting it, since even to me posting something anti-religious on Christmas seems a bit tacky. Or is it residual Catholic guilt? Anyway…

I came across this post at Pharyngula, in which we learn that our Christian brethren are far less likely to oppose torture than we secularists, atheists and agnostics. In fact, we are alone in being more likely to oppose torture than support it. This is hardly surprising, inasmuch as nowadays (and it has likely always been thus) religion is used as a way of justifying what we find convenient to do anyway. When racists needed a place to send their kids after their schools were integrated, the first thing they did was found religious schools in which it was an article of faith that the races should not mix, because apparently Jesus wanted it that way.

The torture issue is richly ironic, given that said Jesus, the man who they all claim to love and worship, was tortured and then executed in brutal fashion. I've read the New Testament several times, and I don't recall any hint that Jesus approved of the treatment he was getting. But from the point of view of today's Christians, maybe they just figure that if it was good enough for Jesus it ought to be good enough for those Arab ragheads.

Perhaps the difference in perspective is a result of differing takes on the role of reason in decision making. Non-religious types may, indeed do, use their noggins more than “faith based” people. That term, after all, is simply another way of saying that one is comfortable with being told what to think by people who, more often than not, have good reason to want one to think things they themselves know are untrue. Thinking people know that torture doesn't work. As the folks at Consortium News point out :

It has long been known that torture does not work. One can go back to the Age of Enlightenment. In 1764, Cesare Beccaria published his groundbreaking work, On Crimes and Punishments, in which he examined all the evidence available at that time and concluded that individuals under torture will tell their interrogators anything they want to hear, true or not, just to get the pain to stop. Beccaria’s book led to a temporary waning of the state-ordered torture.

It is hard to believe that you would need to examine any evidence at all to conclude that people being tortured will say what their torturers want to hear. I would, wouldn't you? Nonetheless, it apparently needed saying.

Of course this begs the larger question. Torture is wrong, pure and simple. Somehow, Christians have talked themselves into believing that the god of love doesn't agree.

Our sainted Founding Fathers, products of the Enlightenment all, even the slave owners among them, also had a thing about not torturing people. Great discussion here and I should add that George Washington strictly forbade the mistreatment of prisoners, despite the fact that it was well known that the British were treating their own prisoners horribly. You see, to a certain extent, despite the evident contradiction of slavery, they were ..ummm…“Enlightened”. Their political descendants, see, e.g., the entire Republican Party and a good share of the Democratic Party, can only be described as “benighted”.

So, add torture to the list of evils that the religious find compatible with the Christian creed. It joins racism, sexism and homophobia, just to name a few items on the list.

Step into that frame

Something there is about liberals, progressives, or whatever we want to call ourselves, that seems to compel us to allow others to frame the terms of our debate. This is a somewhat trivial example, but because it is so blatant, I have to point it out.

This mostly excellent post at Naked Capitalism argues that our current military adventurism and policy of endless war has its somewhat obscure origin in George Bush the First's invasion of Panama. This invasion, which cost an uncertain number of innocent Panamanian lives, was undertaken for the ostensible purpose of arresting Manuel Noriega, for drug running. In actuality Bush was probably just pissed at him for yanking Bush's chain, since it was entirely predictable, and I'm sure it's happened, that another drug runner, ignored to date by the U.S., took over where Noriega left off (if, indeed, he was ever that important a drug runner).

This invasion was given the propagandistic name of Operation Just Cause by Bush and his cronies. It is hard to imagine a name for an invasion that is more obviously propagandistic. Every time one uses it, one validates the “cause”, whether one wishes to or not. It seems to this humble observer that one could call it the Panamanian Invasion, or if one wants to be more specific, the 1989 Panamanian Invasion. This is a fairly neutral phrasing, much like “World War II”. Now, how does the blogger at Naked Capitalism refer to the invasion. Need you ask? The use of the term itself tends to undercut his argument. There is no law that requires us to accede to government propaganda, just as there is none that requires us to call people opposed to abortion “pro-life” (which they most assuredly are not). Yet we do it. Can you imagine the right agreeing to call Obamacare (which itself started as a derisive right wing term) the Healthy Outcomes Act, had the administration tried to hang that moniker on it? But we on the left (present company excepted) fall for it every time.

Sony Baloney

Okay, I agree that a foreign government shouldn't be hacking corporations, which as the Supreme Court tells us, are people too.

But it strikes me that a movie whose plot revolves around a plan to kill an actual, non-fictional human being, is, to say the least, somewhat tacky. Imagine the response by this country's right wing (the sector most exorcised about free speech rights in this case) had North Korea, for example, put out a movie about killing W while the boy-king was still in office. It would have been a strange situation, because for once the right would have been right.

So, North Korea bad, but the movie bad too. Kim Jong- Il is a miserable excuse for a human being, but he is still a human being. Mock him by all means, but don't make a movie about killing him.

A Mystery

Tom Coburn, the poster child for the merits of repeal of the seventeenth amendment, is currently holding up funding for a suicide prevention program for vets:

Oklahoma Republican Sen. Tom Coburn continues to single-handedly block the Clay Hunt SAV Act, otherwise known as the Suicide Prevention for America’s Veterans Act. His reason: it will cost $22 million, and that's $22 million he doesn't want to spend.

via Daily Kos

I don't have Dean Baker's handy calculator, so I can only guess what percentage of the budget $22 million represents, but it's way below .01 percent.

It certainly is a mystery why Coburn is doing this, but it's not really a mystery that interests me. Here's the mystery that interests me: People like Coburn, Cruz and their ilk are constantly doing this, and constantly getting away with it. The people running the Senate can't ever seem to find a way to get around them. Yet when a Democrat, particularly a liberal, tries to do something similar, it seems there's always a way. I recall years ago Chris Dodd tried to stop FISA legislation. Harry Reid swatted him aside like a fly. Just another of life's little mysteries.

A capitalist explains things

This is hard to summarize, so all I can do is urge you to read this article by Nick Hanauer, who is a very rich person who is also, apparently, an honest man. A very rare mix these days.

I confess I was totally unaware of the overtime rules he writes about, or of the fact that they have been used as yet another means of screwing the middle class. It is also extremely disheartening to know that Obama could single handedly take action that would go a fair distance toward reversing inequality in this country and to also know that, when all is said and done, he'll do next to nothing.

Joe Courtney does us proud

I've met a lot of politicians, and, truth to tell, most of them, even the ones with whom I agree, are self centered assholes. Joe Courtney is an extremely honorable exception; I've rarely heard him discussed without someone saying what a “nice guy” he is. Of course, being a nice guy would do us little good, if he weren't also a great Congressman. He's made his mistakes, but he was definitely on the right side of the recent budget vote, and for all the right reasons:

Explaining his decision, Courtney cited his strong objections to provisions in the spending bill that roll back portions of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law and undermine campaign finance contribution limits.

In a statement sent to The Day late Friday, Courtney said, “House Republicans' insistence on adding special interest giveaways to an otherwise-fair spending bill is deeply disappointing. Congress came very close to passing a bipartisan, bicameral spending agreement, and I would have been willing to support it without the policy riders that benefit Wall Street banks and super-rich political donors above the middle class.”

via The New London Day

Dodd-Frank was pretty weak tea; a return to Glass-Steagall would be far more simple and effective. Still, it did make some positive improvements, and one of the few has now been repealed. Once again, we taxpayers will be providing a financial backstop the next time the banks blow up the economy using credit default swaps. I'm one constituent who is really glad Joe stuck with the majority of Democrats and voted against this bill. It should be noted in passing that while the Obama people claimed to be against this provision, they did virtually nothing to try to get it removed from the bill. More importantly, it should be noted that Hillary Clinton, alone among those nosed about as potential Democratic presidential candidates, refused to take a position on the bill.

But I digress. Once again, thanks Joe. It's nice to be able to say you are proud of your Congressman.