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A prediction: You won’t soon be seeing the 7 Aphorisms in a Park near you.

From the New York Times:

PLEASANT GROVE CITY, Utah — Across the street from City Hall here sits a small park with about a dozen donated buildings and objects — a wishing well, a millstone from the city’s first flour mill and an imposing red granite monument inscribed with the Ten Commandments.

Thirty miles to the north, in Salt Lake City, adherents of a religion called Summum gather in a wood and metal pyramid hard by Interstate 15 to meditate on their Seven Aphorisms, fortified by an alcoholic sacramental nectar they produce and surrounded by mummified animals.

In 2003, the president of the Summum church wrote to the mayor here with a proposal: the church wanted to erect a monument inscribed with the Seven Aphorisms in the city park, “similar in size and nature” to the one devoted to the Ten Commandments.

The city declined, a lawsuit followed and a federal appeals court ruled that the First Amendment required the city to display the Summum monument. The Supreme Court on Wednesday will hear arguments in the case, which could produce the most important free speech decision of the term.

This will be a challenge for the Supreme Court. It will have to come up with a way to reject the Summum church while plausibly claiming that it is not establishing the Judeo-Christian tradition as the official religion of the United States. It will in fact come up with something, which will, I predict, be a case study in intellectual dishonesty. Look forward to the good right wing justices telling us they are not doing all sorts of things they will in fact be doing.

The fact is, the constitutional basis for allowing religious expression in public spaces was always suspect. The claim, for instance, that a Nativity scene had lost all religious significance, was palpably absurd. The claims that Lake Grove is making to distinguish between the Ten Commandments and the Seven Aphorisms are equally absurd. The town makes one argument that is emotionally compelling but constitutionally barren:

The city, supported by more than 20 cities and states, along with the federal government, has told the Supreme Court that the upshot of affirming the appeals court decision would be to clutter public parks across the nation with offensive nonsense.

A town accepting a Sept. 11 memorial would also have to display a donated tribute to Al Qaeda, the briefs said. “Accepting a Statue of Liberty,” the city’s brief said, should not “compel a government to accept a Statue of Tyranny.”

In fact, a city making its public spaces available for private groups want to make oral speeches that oppose Al Qaeda would probably also have to make that same space available for those who support Al Qaeda, assuming anyone would have the guts to take that position. The permanent nature of the speech makes no difference. The problem the city faces is this: It can put up any monument it wants, so long as it pays for it, without being required to let private groups do the same. So, for instance, a city could put up a monument honoring the September 11th victims without letting an Al Qaeda supporter put up an answering monument. The Sunnum folks argue, quite reasonably, that it can accept a donation of a monument to the September 11th victims, so long as it expressly adopts the message of the monument as its own. The problem for the town is that it cannot expressly adopt the message of a religious monument as its own. Therefore, it follows that if it allows one religion to erect a monument, it must let all do so. Except, of course, it won’t follow, and we will see one more breach in the increasingly porous wall separating church and state.


Liars, damned liars and statistics

Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com gives some context to the oft repeated claim that the surge in minority voters is responsible for the passage of proposition 8 in California:

Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California’s black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly. Exit polls suggest that first-time voters — the vast majority of whom were driven to turn out by Obama (he won 83 percent [!] of their votes) — voted against Prop 8 by a 62-38 margin. More experienced voters voted for the measure 56-44, however, providing for its passage.

Now, it’s true that if new voters had voted against Prop 8 at the same rates that they voted for Obama, the measure probably would have failed. But that does not mean that the new voters were harmful on balance — they were helpful on balance. If California’s electorate had been the same as it was in 2004, Prop 8 would have passed by a wider margin.

Furthermore, it would be premature to say that new Latino and black voters were responsible for Prop 8’s passage. Latinos aged 18-29 (not strictly the same as ‘new’ voters, but the closest available proxy) voted against Prop 8 by a 59-41 margin. These figures are not available for young black voters, but it would surprise me if their votes weren’t fairly close to the 50-50 mark.

Proving once again that it’s easy to mislead with statistics. The trick is to look at the statistics that are truly relevant to the point in issue.


Brave New Films: Lieberman Must Go II


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Betting Update

Many months ago (back in March) I wrote about a bet I made with a friend of mine. I bet that the Democrats would not cut Joe Lieberman loose (by taking away his committee assignments), even if they got 57 or more Senates seats. I lose the bet if he loses his committees, whatever the Senate makeup. We didn’t discuss whether Lieberman should count as one of the 57, so to be fair, I am going to assume now that we are at 56.

So how are things looking?

For a while things were looking good, in the sense that they were looking bad for me. But today, it’s looking more and more like I’ll win the bet (or no one will win if we don’t pick up one of the remaining three seats). As I’ve noted before, Dodd is making supportive noises. Bill Clinton is making phone calls on Lieberman’s behalf andObama has let it be known that he want’s Lieberman to stay in the caucus. Lieberman will see that as a sign that he can dictate terms, and I’m beginning to suspect that he’ll be right in drawing that conclusion. Why is it that these people can’t see that as soon as he gets what he wants Lieberman will revert to form. Can’t they see that Lieberman must be destroyed?

So at the moment, it looks like my friend will be paying for dinner in January, provided we get one more seat in the Senate. (C’mon Franken, I’m rooting for you.) There is still a chance that things may change, and that I’ll be buying. We can all only hope.

Update: It appears that Bill Clinton may not have been making calls for Lieberman. His spokepeople denied Josh Marshall’s report.


Let me expand and revise my remarks

In my last post I mentioned that the government is giving trillions to the banks, some of it illegal. I was making reference to two things. First, the treasury has created a host of bailout programs outside of the $700 Billion Congressional giveaway. More egregiously, the Treasury Department has decided that it has the power to enact laws, specifically tax laws to benefit banks that are acquiring other banks:

The financial world was fixated on Capitol Hill as Congress battled over the Bush administration’s request for a $700 billion bailout of the banking industry. In the midst of this late-September drama, the Treasury Department issued a five-sentence notice that attracted almost no public attention.

But corporate tax lawyers quickly realized the enormous implications of the document: Administration officials had just given American banks a windfall of as much as $140 billion.
The sweeping change to two decades of tax policy escaped the notice of lawmakers for several days, as they remained consumed with the controversial bailout bill. When they found out, some legislators were furious. Some congressional staff members have privately concluded that the notice was illegal. But they have worried that saying so publicly could unravel several recent bank mergers made possible by the change and send the economy into an even deeper tailspin.

“Did the Treasury Department have the authority to do this? I think almost every tax expert would agree that the answer is no,” said George K. Yin, the former chief of staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, the nonpartisan congressional authority on taxes. “They basically repealed a 22-year-old law that Congress passed as a backdoor way of providing aid to banks.”

Don’t be fooled by the stuff about some legislators being furious. The ones that count aren’t furious, or aren’t furious enough:

But lawmakers worried about discussing their concerns publicly. The staff of Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), chairman of the Finance Committee, had asked that the entire conference call be kept secret, according to a person with knowledge of the call.

“We’re all nervous about saying that this was illegal because of our fears about the marketplace,” said one congressional aide, who like others spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. “To the extent we want to try to publicly stop this, we’re going to be gumming up some important deals.”

Grassley and Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) have publicly expressed concerns about the notice but have so far avoided saying that it is illegal. “Congress wants to help,” Grassley said. “We also have a responsibility to make sure power isn’t abused and that the sensibilities of Main Street aren’t left in the dust as Treasury works to inject remedies into the financial system.”

Some legal experts said these under-the-radar objections mirror the objections to the congressional resolution authorizing the war in Iraq.

“It’s just like after September 11. Back then no one wanted to be seen as not patriotic, and now no one wants to be seen as not doing all they can to save the financial system,” said Lee A. Sheppard, a tax attorney who is a contributing editor at the trade publication Tax Analysts. “We’re left now with congressional Democrats that have spines like overcooked spaghetti. So who is going to stop the Treasury secretary from doing whatever he wants?”

The Bush crime gang, arrogant until the end. Congressional Democrats, wimps then, wimps now, wimps forever.


Where should we spend our borrowed money?

Obama is being pulled in a number of directions. According to the Boston Globe, the Defense Business Board, a government board stocked with business minded civilians, he should cut spending at the Pentagon. This would, by the way, be bad news for Joe Courtney, because according to the Board, submarines are among the wasteful military projects:

Such cuts would affect the New England economy. General Dynamics builds warships and submarines in Maine and Connecticut, while Raytheon, Massachusetts’ largest employer, is involved in numerous weapons programs from ships to missile defenses and satellites.

Pentagon insiders and defense budget specialists say the Pentagon has been on a largely unchecked spending spree since 2001 that will prove politically difficult to curtail but nevertheless must be reined in.

Paul Krugman recommends more spending on public works projects. In fact, he says, when in doubt, spend more:

The economic lesson is the importance of doing enough. F.D.R. thought he was being prudent by reining in his spending plans; in reality, he was taking big risks with the economy and with his legacy. My advice to the Obama people is to figure out how much help they think the economy needs, then add 50 percent. It’s much better, in a depressed economy, to err on the side of too much stimulus than on the side of too little.

There is a measure of consistency lurking behind what appears to be contrary positions.

Since Saint Ronald appeared on the scene, spending on public works has stagnated, while spending on the military has increased. Since September 11th, the military has been spending money like I would if you gave me a free buying spree in an Apple store. The fact that most of this spending will be of zero use in the “war on terror” matters not a jot. In effect, military spending has for years been the only politically respectable form of public works expenditures.

The problem is two-fold. First, military spending gives you less bang for the buck as far as job creation is concerned. Second, and most important, it gives almost no return. As Krugman points out, the very limited public works spending during the Depression constituted an investment from which we still reap benefits:

To this day we drive on W.P.A.-built roads and send our children to W.P.A.-built schools.

Military spending is somewhat akin to building pyramids. It creates jobs, but it does not create wealth. It has the added disadvantage of not even leaving something awesome behind, as the pyramid builders did.

If we’re going to run up deficits to stimulate the economy, we should spend money on things that we actually need-things that will yield a return over the long term. Spending money on infrastructure, for instance, as Al Gore is suggesting, serves two purposes. In the short run it creates jobs and stimulates the economy; in the long run we have something tangible that continues to yield dividends for many years. What’s amazing is how cheap some of these investments are in comparison to the obscene bank bailout. Gore says we could get a modern nationwide electrical grid, with energy derived from clean sources, for $400 billion. Even if you assume the near worst and double that, it would cost only $800 billion dollars (with an approximately 25% per year return on investment). Compare that to the $700 billion banker bailout for bang for the buck, not to mention the 2 trillion dollar illegal bailout going on behind the scenes.

Here in Southeastern Connecticut we rely (although not as much as in the past) on the submarine building industry. The Defense Business Board is calling our entitlement to government handouts into question. The dirty little secret is that it’s very hard, in today’s world, to justify the number of submarines we have, and the number we are planning to build. The primary function served by this sub building program is job creation. If we transfer unnecessary military spending to the civilian sector it might cause short term disclocations in areas like ours, but it’s a price we may have to pay to rationalize the way we spend our money. After all, all of this money will be borrowed in the short term. It makes no sense to borrow money to buy things we don’t need.


Whither Joe?

It’s a little difficult to figure out exactly what’s going on so far as Lieberman is concerned. I know some people thing Harry Reid is showing signs of weakness, based on a recent interview with John King, but I’m not so sure. There is apparently a log going on behind the scenes. Some of it’s not good, particularly Chris Dodd’s tin ear when it comes to this issue. There’s really no reason to fear that this would be an all consuming story. If the Democrats decide to cut Joe loose, there will be very few members of the public that won’t understand their reasons. You don’t let someone rooting for the other guy stay on the team; it’s really just that simple. If the Democrats do let him stay, they will simply reinforce the perception that they are week. Anyone in the Republican caucus who had done the same, particularly in the Republican salad days, could have expected no mercy. The official position of this blog, by the way, is that Joe Lieberman must be destroyed.

It appears that Reid may simply kick the question over to the full caucus. If the majority of Democratic Senators choose to succumb to Lieberman’s empty threats, then we know we are in real trouble in this country. If Reid does refer it to the caucus, which caucus would it be? This Senate, or the new Senate? If now, presumably Obama could vote, though I have to think he would decline to do so. Still, it’d be interesting to know what his folks are saying behind the scenes. I’d be disappointed if Dodd is right, and that Obama would not want Lieberman tossed overboard. Somehow, that doesn’t seem to be the way Rahm Emmanuel operates. Chicago street fighting comes more to mind.

On a more cheery note, Norm Coleman, who just a few days ago was suggesting that Al Franken should forego a recount, is now filing lawsuits to stop votes from being counted. Things are a bit too close for comfort, apparently, with demographics favoring Franken in the recount, though I’m not at all sure why that should be so.

Finally, have you noticed how empty your email inbox is these days? What blessed relief. Though I must say that I’m a little upset with Michelle, Barack, and all the other folks who were writing me so often prior to the election. Not a word since. Given how close I was with all of them I thought I’d at least get an invite to the inaugural podium, but nothing so far.


Friday Night Music-East Village, NYC

I searched youtube for the most appropriate version of this song, for what’s more appropriate this week? This seemed to be the best, a spontaneous version in the streets of New York.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOO6hN5Q6kI[/youtube]

Post election depression

Prior to elections, readership on political blogs, even backwater blogs like this, spikes. Once the election is over, they plummet. So the sad fact is that not too many people are likely to read this post, and truth be told, I’m out of things to say. I can’t even bring myself to trash Lieberman, which my wife says I’m doing too much anyway, even if the poor deluded guy is trying to dictate to the Democrats. Of course, with the Democrats, maybe it will work. But, there I go trashing Lieberman again, and I said I wouldn’t do that.

Anyway, here’s a little piece from the Onion that I think captures the moment quite well.

Obama Win Causes Obsessive Supporters To Realize How Empty Their Lives Are

Lieberman must be destroyed

Harry Reid threatened his chairmanship and he’s threatening to go to the dark side. Let him go. He is a bitter, self centered liar. Even if we needed his vote to make 60 caucus members he would not be worth keeping. Once he got waht he wanted, he would immediately turn on the Democrats again.

Ultimately, it’s up to the Senate Democratic Steering and Outreach Committee to decide his fate. Sign the petition here to get them to move toward destroying Joe.