I should start by saying that the following assumes we will have somewhat fair elections in November. I am by no means predicting that will actually be the case.
Given that assumption, it appears that Trump’s decision to go to war for no reason whatsoever is causing his, and by extension Republican, support to crumble. It’s very disappointing for the genius, because he actually thought starting an unnecessary war would cause his approval to skyrocket. For various reasons his bigoted supporters can’t stomach his war. As per usual, they have come to this conclusion for all the wrong reasons, but they have still done so. To a great extent it’s the fact that they are anti-Semites, such as Trump’s former Top Counterterrorism Official, Joe Kent, who has now resigned because he believes Israel pressured Trump to start the war. There is a grain of truth there, I suppose. I’m sure Bibi encouraged Trump, but it’s not foreign involvement to which Kent objects, he just hates Jews. And in any event, Bibi doesn’t have the clout to “pressure” Trump into doing anything, he can merely encourage him to do something he is already inclined to do.
Another example is Stewart Rhodes, the reprehensible head of the Oath Keepers, who is even willing to forego the pardon he was going to ask for because, like Kent he’s an anti-Semite, something about which he’s totally upfront:
“We can’t shut our eyes to the obvious role of the influence of Zionism in our government, of the Israeli people, intelligence services, Mossad, and others in our government,” he began. “So that’s why I no longer call myself MAGA. I am an America-only patriot. I’m a Christian nationalist, an American Christian nationalist. I have to open my eyes to the reality in front of my face, and it’s caused a division inside of MAGA, and it’s caused a division on the political right. But so be it.”
He’s a horrible human being, but he’s right that there’s a division on the political right, with the anti-Semites and others who have supported Trump drifting away from him, and, by extension, the Republican Party. I’m by no means arguing that these people will come out and vote for Democrats. They will either not vote at all or they will vote for a more extreme right wing party that might spring up. It would certainly be nice to see such a third party spring up and steal the majority from the Republicans. A bit of payback for what Ralph Nader did to the Democrats in 2000, something which led directly to the fascist state we have become.

