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Coup coming in Ecuador

This situation will bear watching :

Ecuador’s leftist President Rafael Correa said Washington must let him open a military base in Miami if the U.S.wants to keep using an air base on Ecuador’s Pacific coast.Correa has refused to renew Washington’s lease on the Manta air base, set to expire in 2009. U.S. officials say it is vital for counter-narcotics surveillance operations on Pacific drug-running routes.

There are three likely outcomes here, provided Correa doesn’t change his mind. In increasing order of likelihood they are:

1. The U.S. will comply with international law and its own word (embodied in a contract) and leave Ecuador when the lease is up.

2. Correa will be killed.

3. There will be a coup. (see, e.g., Allende’s Chile).

Actually, the latter two have a pretty much equal probability.

Correa is doing us a favor by kicking us out of his country. We aren’t doing the world any favors by having bases all over the world, and we aren’t doing ourselves any either. We are stretched too thin and we don’t have the money anymore. At some point, Britain recognized that the jig was up and withdrew from Empire voluntarily, after having its ass kicked in a few places to drive the lesson home. We don’t seem to be learning. My guess is that Correa won’t be in power by the time that lease expires, and the poor Ecuadorians will be stuck with a right wing government for several years.

Back from the Shadows, yet again

If you have tried to access this site in the last two days you were probably unsuccessful. This may have raised hopes in your breast that I would no longer be inflicting my ravings on an already beleaguered world.

Alas, I must dash your hopes. The problem was not with me, but with the server, which was down for almost two days. I was assured early yesterday morning that service would be restored sometime around 7:00 AM on Wednesday, but in fact it was not restored until the small hours of the morning on Thursday.

I know this comes as a disappointment to some, but I’m back.

I never lost faith-well, hardly ever

Now that the Red Sox have won the pennant, I just want to say that despite what I may have said in the past, which might have led some to believe the contrary, I never for a moment lost faith in them. I may have said I expected them to fold, I may even have said it was a certainty, but that was only a smokescreen to hide the supreme confidence that I actually felt. After all, certain things are expected of us Red Sox fans, a sense of impending doom being first among them. It would have been churlish of me to disappoint my readers, particularly the Yankee fans among them, had I not acted true to type.

As to the coming Series. I am, as always, supremely confident that the Red Sox will win. After all, have the ever let me down before?

Bush’s Imperial Ambitions-there from the start

Atrios notes that this article in the American Prospect by John Judis represents a breakthrough of sorts-a recognition by a beltway media type that Bush’s foreign policy is essentially imperialistic. It’s well worth a read, since it summarizes well the arguments for that characterization and the reasons why imperialism is a failed strategy in foreign relations in this day and age. It does not, unfortunately, deal with the damage imperialism does to republicanism. The two are essentially incompatible. Ask any ancient Roman or Athenian.

While the article is worth reading it has its flaws. This brought me up short:

When George W. Bush took office in January 2001, however, his foreign policy echoed not only that of neo-isolationist Republicans like former Majority Leader Dick Armey, but also that of America’s foreign policy before we decided in 1898 that we had to get involved in the struggle for empire. That was an America that not only scorned empire but was oblivious to much of the outside world. Bush disdained international organizations. He withdrew the United States from the Kyoto climate treaty and whatever other international agreements had yet to be ratified. He was a unilateralist, but he was reluctant to use America’s singular power to affect the governments of other countries. His highest defense priority was the erection of an anti-missile system, the purpose of which was not only to make the United States impregnable from foreign attack, but also to reduce the reliance of the U.S. on other countries for its security.

All that changed after September 11. Bush retained his unilateralism, but he now wedded it to an aggressive strategy for dealing with America’s enemies.

In developing a response to September 11, Bush fell under the influence of neo-conservatives in his administration and in Washington policy circles. These neo-conservatives believed that the United States should use its superior military power to intimidate and overthrow the regimes of “rogue states” like Iraq that challenged American hegemony. (One typical slogan was “rogue state rollback.”) The neocons didn’t favor colonialism, but believed that by exerting its power the United States could produce regimes that did its bidding. After September 11, they spoke openly of creating a new American empire. “People are now coming out of the closet on the word ‘empire,'” Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer exulted.

This comes dangerously close to believing what Bush said, rather than what he did. None of the actions described in the first paragraph is incompatible with imperial ambitions. Why, for instance, participate in international treaties when you would prefer to impose your own solution (or non-solution, in the case of climate change). The idea that Bush lacked imperial ambitions prior to 9/11 rests on a few faulty premises. First, that the Bush who campaigned as a person who favored dealing with other nations with a proper amount of “humility” (Remember that? It seems incredible, doesn’t it.) was telling the truth about his intentions, and that his actions in the few months prior to 9/11 were illustrative of his ultimate objectives. (When I refer to Bush in this article I mean the Bush organization, not merely the sometime puppet we have all grown to loathe).

The first premise fails because it ignores the first law of Bush. Whenever Bush says anything that sounds the least bit responsible, he is lying. This is almost a law of nature. More importantly, though, Judis ignores the fact that Dick Cheney, the biggest, meanest neo-con of them all was pulling Bush’s strings from the very start, and that from day one, long before Osama handed him the rope he would hang himself with, Bush was determined to attack Iraq. We know this from Paul O’Neil and others. His objectives were imperialistic from the start, he simply did not yet have the political capital to implement them. 9/11 didn’t change Bush, it liberated him.

Yet another strained baseball metaphor

The New York Times asks: Are the Red Sox Ready to Become the New Yankees?“. In a bit of sports writing that sounds, in places, like those articles we see so often in which Republicans like David Brooks give “well meant” advice to Democrats, William Rhoden of the Times warns of the dangers to the Red Sox should they supplant the Yankees as the perennial champs in the AL:

The best way for Boston to vanquish the Yankees is to become more like the Yankees. For the first time in a long time, the Red Sox are in position to make the transformation. Boston can become the new New York.

The door is open for the Red Sox, with a rich baseball tradition and a high payroll, to replace the Yankees as the team the nation loves to hate. The question is whether the Red Sox, after years of being the object of sympathy and even pity, can adjust to being despised.

With the Yankees’ empire in decline, the implications for Boston are significant and perhaps terrifying. The Red Sox could sign Alex Rodriguez, and he and pitcher Josh Beckett could be anchors of a Boston dynasty.

Look around. The pursuit of winning has tempted some of us to break rules, tear moral fiber, take performance-enhancing drugs and jettison a manager who failed to lead his team past the first playoff round for three consecutive years.

I would ask Boston fans whether they really want to see their team do this. Do they want a franchise whose ethos is that winning titles is the only thing?

We Red Sox fans appreciate the concern New York is showing for the corrosive effect that winning may have on our characters, a concern that appears to have been wholly lacking for their own characters lo these many years. We never knew they were suffering so much through all those winning seasons.

Still, there is a kernel of truth in what the Times has to say. All these years the Red Sox have tried hard, played hard, and played fair only to find that in the end the guy with the most money wins. This lesson, reinforced through many dark years, has sunk in well enough that we here in New England have extended it from the world of sports to the world of…well-the world. It is no surprise to us, for instance, that the unqualified George Bush, the candidate of the monied interests, has twice managed to steal the presidency despite the best but often bumbling efforts of the Red Sox of our political system- the Democrats. As in baseball, so in life-money rules.

But we New Englanders have refused to accept this harsh reality. As the Democrats turned into perennial also-rans, they, like the Red Sox, became ever more popular here in New England. Now, with ultimate success staring both the team and the party straight in the face; with their hated rivals at least temporarily on the ropes, both the Red Sox and the Democrats face similar challenges: Can they stay winners yet remain true to the inner loser in their souls? Or does winning, like power, always corrupt?

Unfortunately, recent events don’t bode well for the Democrats. They appear to await only a Democratic president to become almost as corrupt as the pinstriped Republicans and lobbyists they supplanted. As for the Red Sox I still have faith. As I write this they are about to start game seven of the playoff series with Cleveland. By all measures, the odds should be with them. Yet is there a soul in New England that has that arrogant confidence that was the hallmark of Satan’s team for so many years? No, we hold our breaths, expect the worst and pray for the best. It will take more than one pennant to quell the inner loser in our breasts, for we dwell in the real world, not that fantasy beltway world in which the past is never forgotten and the future is never anticipated.

By the way, I must say here that if Cleveland triumphs tonight, I shall root for them to beat the team from Colorado. I always favor the AL team, except, of course, when that team is from New York.

Off to NY

We’ve got a busy weekend ahead, so most likely I won’t be inflicting anything on the net for a while.

Tomorrow we’re going to the Big Apple to see a preview of Tom Stoppard’s Rock ‘N’ Roll and Sunday we’re going to a Courtney Fund Raiser in Essex.

I am still disappointed with Joe over the MoveOn vote, but I’m hoping that a few days breathing air outside the beltway will bring him back to reality.

Friday Night music-Jimi Hendrix

Gotta go with the classic-Purple Haze.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OF0o4xCqPgU[/youtube]

The new AG, just like the old AG

Atrios points out that no nominee for Attorney General would admit that the Bush Administration has been completely lawless, but nonetheless, I find the kabuki show being played out by the Democrats at the nomination hearing both tiresome and frustrating. As always, they start out by conceding that he’s a shoo in. Now we learn that he is essentially a smoother Gonzalez, but despite his refusal to give a straight answer at the only point when there can be consequences for his failure to do so, they will no doubt give him a pass.

Is it any wonder that the hold Congress in contempt?

Chris Dodd puts a hold on FISA

All hail our own Chris Dodd, who is finding his stride these days. He might not get the nomination, but he’s showing some leadership and something even rarer: respect for the Constitution. If it’s a pose, it’s one we can only hope other politicians will adopt.

I sent myself a link from work about this story, but I see in my inbox that Chris sent an email about it that arrived just before my own. He has placed a hold on the Senate version of the FISA bill, which contains the truly offensive retroactive telecon immunity provision. Here’s his announcement:

It’s been a busy day, but I wanted take a moment and let you know that I have decided to place a “hold” on legislation in the Senate that includes amnesty for telecommunications companies that enabled the President’s assault on the Constitution by providing personal information on their customers without judicial authorization.

I said that I would do everything I could to stop this bill from passing, and I have.

It’s about delivering results — and as I’ve said before, the FIRST thing I will do after being sworn into office is restore the Constitution.

But we shouldn’t have to wait until then to prevent the further erosion of our country’s most treasured document.

That’s why I am stopping this bill today.

A few more moves like that and Chris will erase the Lieberstain on Connecticut’s reputation.

Itunes U

There’s a cool new feature at the Itunes Store. Various colleges and universities have uploaded both audio and video content. My alma mater is among them, though truth to tell, its offerings are not that enticing.

Stanford University, on the other hand, has full video and audio courses. I downloaded a video course on Theoretical Physics, and an audio course on the Aeneid, which I happen to be reading at the moment.

All free, as far as I can see.