Arlen Specter is becoming a Democrat. Having concluded that he cannot win the Republican primary, he has done the “principled” thing and once again become a Democrat. This is a man who only recently opined that investigating torture is something they do only in banana republics and who, also recently, did a 180 turn on Employee Free Choice. Of course, that was when he still was trying to appease his right flank. Having concluded that it is impossible for him to do so, and perhaps feeling a bit of security as the result of who knows what secret deal, he is opting to compete in the Democratic primary.
What can we expect from this new Democrat. Not much. Will he (when Franken finally gets seated) make 60 to stop the filibusters? Not according to Spector:
My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords’ switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change.
If the Democrats have cut a deal and promised him a clear path to the nomination, they have cut their own throats. The only thing that will keep him in line is a threat from the left that will give him the incentive to behave himself. We don’t necessarily need his vote on Employee Free Choice. It’s probably asking too much to expect him to make yet another about face on that issue. But there’s no reason why he can’t take the “principled” stand that though he’s against it, he believes it should come to a vote. That’s the kind of thing Joe Lieberman is good at, and Arlen will be nothing if not another Lieberman.
The optimal outcome would be that he has to tack to the left to win the nomination, loses anyway, and a real Democrat trounces Pat Toomey. That is, by the way, not an unlikely outcome.
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