After much (well, some) reflection I’ve decided not to write a list of predictions this year, at least not like I did last year. I could easily just re-print my predictions from last year, except the one about the iPad, which I’d have to change from iPad 2 to iPad 3. Sure, that would mean I’d repeat a few errors, most fairly minor, but I’d still end up way ahead of the typical pundit. If I cheated and skipped the ones where I fell short, there’s an excellent chance I’d get a perfect score at Year’s end. It’s a depressing thought, but probably true, that with the exception of the added inanity of an election year, things will probably pretty much repeat themselves. The Republicans will obstruct, Obama will give in and declare victory, and the economic near Depression will continue, despite the fact that our problems could be rectified fairly easily and painlessly. Only a David Brooks could miss any of that. Am I right?
Of course, the year will be leavened by bizarre events, of which, much like some events of this year it can truly be said, no one could have predicted. In this category we must put events like the rise and fall of Herman Cain, an event far more bizarre than the just reported repeat of the New Year’s blackbird die-off in Arkansas. Somewhere waiting in the wings is the Herman Cain of 2012. No doubt there is someone loonier than Herman all set to run for the Senate. There’s so many in the House that no one bothers to count.
So these are some reflections, as well as some intermixed predictions about the coming horror show. Yes Virginia, against all odds, 2012 will be more insane than 2011.
First, I’m not saying a thing about Connecticut. I’ve learned my lesson after my disastrous prediction last year. Malloy and Company will have to take care of themselves.
So, on to the Nationals.
Very little happens in most election years, at least so far as domestic legislation is concerned, and that should be true in 2012 in spades, given the Republican intransigence of the past three years. So lets look ahead and see if there’s a snowball’s chance that we can pull this country out of its nosedive by electing a rational and responsive government in 2012. (Hint: we can’t)
Of one thing we can be sure, absent a miracle. No one wants it, but Willard 1% Romney will be the Republican candidate for president. The only question is where he will find delegates he can trust not to stampede to the first Great White Hope (and I do mean white- sorry Herman) someone proposes before the first ballot, in the vain hope that they can stave off the inevitable. He’ll find such delegates, no doubt, though like Linda McMahon he may have to pay for them. Now, a prognosticator could really prove his or her mettle by predicting the VP candidate. I think he’ll be looking for a person with brown skin, not to attract the votes of such people, but for PR purposes and to assure the party of racists that they are, in fact, not racists. Brown Republicans are not exactly thick on the ground, so I’m thinking Marco Rubio or Bobby Jindal. But my level of confidence on this is not great. Maybe he’ll go for a Palin clone. The Republican party is chock a block with them, so I wouldn’t even try to choose among them.
The biggest question about the election: whose side is more discouraged. My own prediction is that it will be the nut balls on the Republican side, who, besides despising the Doctor Fell getting their nomination, might very well have a third party to consider. Our side will be so scared of the alternative that we’ll come out for Obama in sufficient numbers to get him over the top. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it. I’m disappointed with the guy, but at least he’s not a psychopath, sociopath, or robot.
Turning to other elections, I think the Democrats will gain seats in the House, but as they will speak with many voices, and will waste much time trying to be all things to all people, and will be loathe to upset the beltway pundits by being “partisan” or “engaging in class warfare” (translation: resisting the oligarchs) they will not be able to capitalize on the widespread loathing of this Congress.
I.e., the Republicans keep control of the House.
Alas, unless they nominate a slew of Christine O’Donnells (and there is always hope), the Republicans take control of the Senate. Though I am technically getting into 2013 here, I will repeat what I’ve said before. If they do manage to take the presidency, they’ll abolish or cripple the filibuster. If, by some miracle, the Democrats retain the Senate and take the House, they will not even think of changing such a hallowed institution, which served the country so well in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.
Since we’re talking about the Senate, let us turn our attention to our own fair state. For every silver lining, no matter how thick, and no matter how silver, there’s a cloud. We here are being blessed with tons of silver. Joe Lieberman will no longer be the Senator from Connecticut. This we know, and this might be evidence for the existence of God, were it not for the fact that the same God would have been responsible for inflicting him in the first place, and no all wise, all powerful, and all loving entity would do such a thing to his miserable creatures. But, as I say, there is a cloud on the horizon. Look for Joe to take his place on Fox as their go-to token Democrat. This may not happen on 2012, given that he won’t, unfortunately, be out of office until 2013, so I’m right if it happens anytime before June, 2013.
Another silver lining, with not much of a cloud: I think Elizabeth Warren will win in Massachusetts, no matter how much Wall Street money is thrown at her.
One big story from last year, that no one predicted, was the Occupy movement. It’s not so much that no one could have predicted demonstrations, it’s that no one could have predicted that anyone would pay attention. For this we have cops and pepper spray to thank. It’s a strange world.
So, whither Occupy? Will they turn out and vote, or has Obama turned them off to electoral politics. It may be one of his most bitter legacies that having raised the hopes of a generation, and then dashing them so effectively, he may have convinced them that change through the electoral process is impossible. Here’s hoping that’s not so, and here’s also hoping that they’ll think of more creative ways of getting their message before the people and into the national conversation. It doesn’t matter whether people “approve” of them or not. Public opinion is far more complex than we are led to believe. Not that many “approved” of the tea party, but they won big by forcefully pushing while no one pushed back. If the occupy folks can keep income inequality in the forefront, some good things might happen.Then again, the media might get itself under better control and relegate them to the limbo into which all left wing movements are consigned.
Turning now to the economy, both world and national, once again we see more of the same.
As incredible as it may seem, Europe has been even stupider than us in its response to the economic crisis there, though they have at least a fig leaf of an excuse because no one has dealt with a trans-national currency like the Euro before.
Here at home, we will do nothing to deal with the current crisis or to prevent its recurrence.
Obama has come to the conclusion that nothing will happen, which means he is perhaps cured of his bi-partisan delusion. Better late than never, but had he never succumbed to this beltway disease, he may very well have accomplished some things in his first two years in office that might have forestalled or minimized the Republican tsunami in 2010. Unfortunately, this Democratic disease of timidity is the factor that results in the ever rightward drift of our politics. Democrats get thrown out of office for not doing what they promised. Republicans get thrown out for doing what they promised.
Unlike during the depression, no really effective action was taken this time around to prevent a repetition of the events that led to the current economic decline. The recent uprisings against the Bank of America’s $5.00 debit card fee and Verizon’s 2.00 bill paying charge certainly show that the American people are ready for some fundamental changes. A few short years ago those charges would have gone virtually unnoticed. The Republicans, of course, will do nothing, and the Democrats will follow suit, despite the PR value that just advocating change would yield. Why jeopardize that cushy lobbying job should you lose reelection by displeasing the corporate puppet masters?
Bankers will continue to make outsize salaries, whether the banks make money or not. Meanwhile they will continue to moan about how poorly treated and misunderstood they are. It’s not easy having lots of green.
Now that we’ve dealt with politics and economics, lets turn to minor issues, like the continued survival of the human species and other miscellany.
It’s been warm lately, but what of that. At some point we will have a snowstorm or a very cold day, and the folks at Fox will make jokes about Al Gore. Other than that we will hear nothing about the environment. The Obama people may do something worthwhile under the radar through regulation, but not anything major.
Turning to other matters.
The iPad 3 will be almost indistinguishable from the present one. It will have Siri, which would easily work on the present iPad, but Apple won’t allow that because they want a feature or two to induce Apple zombies to upgrade. Where do I get in line? Right behind Lon, I believe.
Someone will win the Oscars.
Some famous people will die and some Hollywood people will misbehave.
The Red Sox are back! Once again the folks in Boston have fashioned a team almost guaranteed to break our hearts. It’s what we’re used to, and, as we all know, it’s what we truly missed during those freakish years starting in 2004.
So, of some things we can be sure. As to the messy and bizarre little details, we will have to await events. Of this we can be certain. The decline continues; not to be abated in this electoral cycle, absent a truly extraordinary miracle. The world gets warmer, the people get poorer, and the barbarians are at the gates, in the form of an unholy alliance of the plutocrats and the theocrats. I’ll leave the rest to Randy:
The end of an empire is messy at best
And this empire is ending
Like all the rest
Like the Spanish Armada adrift on the sea
We’re adrift in the land of the brave
And the home of the free
No, wait. I can’t leave it there. I’m under strict orders from a certain someone not to be a cranky old man. So forget about what Randy has to say, and forget about all my dire premonitions. Take a bit of the advice from Monty Python that I’ve repeated so often:
Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse.
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle
Don’t grumble, give a whistle
And this’ll help things turn out for the best…
And…always look on the bright side of life…
Always look on the light side of life…
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