A few days ago I speculated that the surprise in New Hampshire might have been, in whole or in part, a result of the Bradley effect. Named after former LA Mayor Tom Bradley, who lost a race for California governor despite polls predicting victory, the term refers to the tendency of white voters to lie to pollsters about their willingness to vote for a black person, and of undecideds in such a race to break predominantly for the white candidate. It means that in a race with a predominantly white electorate, a black candidate has to assume that polls overstate the level of support the candidate will get on election day.
This is one thing I’m rather optimistic about. The effect may still be with us, but I believe it’s fading.
In 1988 I voted for Jesse Jackson in the Connecticut primary, and then watched the returns, hoping that Dukakis would win. I voted for the guy with whom I agreed, but I knew he couldn’t win the general election and, at least at the time, it looked like Dukakis could. If I vote for Obama this year, I won’t feel the same way, because I do think he can win. A lot of folks have died since 1988, and they’ve been replaced with a younger generation, most of whom have trouble understanding the prejudices that permeated society years ago. I’m not saying that racism is gone, but it’s less pervasive, particularly among the young.
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