CT Blue

One of my readers (my only reader?) emailed to ask me if, in light of the Trump amplified corona virus, my predictions for the years ahead had changed since this New Year’s day post. Inasmuch as I find that commenting on the daily events, all of which seem so predictable that any intelligent comment seems too obvious to bother to scribble about, I thought it would be a good idea to answer by way of a post, since I actually pay for this space in cyberspace, so I might as well use it.

First of all, this post will assume that the Republicans are unable to steal the election. I would say there’s about a 50% chance that they will, and if they do, all my predictions become inoperative.

So, with that caveat, lets take it paragraph by paragraph, since I’m stuck here at home anyway with nothing else to do, with my daily bike ride behind me.

First paragraph:

Somehow, the dark side will prevail on the Democratic side of the ledger, and Joe Biden will emerge as the Democratic candidate. The media will immediately feel an obligation to make an issue out of his son Hunter and Giuliani’s conspiracy theories, despite the fact that there is no actual evidence to support them. They will do this in the interest of both siderism.

First sentence: check. As to the rest, it’s too early to tell, but there’s at least a reasonable possibility that the press will be distracted by the fact that we’re in the middle of a plague. However, we shouldn’t underestimate either the Republicans’ ability to control the press narrative or the press’s predilection to always go where the Republicans have gone before. If it’s not the Hunter thing, it will be some other conspiracy theory that will catch their fancy.

But the good news is that Biden will likely still eke out a narrow victory because by then Trump’s dangerous mental illness will be even more apparent, and the over 50% of the electorate that wants him out of office will have grown somewhat larger, and will hold its collective nose and vote for Joe. Even the Senate will likely change hands.

Looks good, though we should never underestimate the ability of the Democrats to blow things. Right now, for instance, their craven fear of being viewed as obstructionist has prevented them from insisting that any relief bill include voter protection measures or substantial relief for ordinary people. The first of those is critical, though they probably wouldn’t benefit even if they got the second, since they would allow Trump and the Republicans to take credit for something both Trump and the Republicans opposed (see signature on paltry $1,200.00 checks.)

On January 21, 2020 Donald Trump will be consigned to the memory hole, like his most recent Republican predecessor, and the media will rush to proclaim that the Republican Party has been purged and is now, once again, the responsible party they knew and loved before the Trumpian aberration came along. Lindsey Graham won’t remember anything about the man. Both siderism, which has begun to be in a bit of a bad odor lately, will see a new rebirth. (Misspelling of Lindsey’s name in original corrected)

I could be wrong here. I think even Fox will dig that hole, but Trump won’t get into it. He’ll continue to hold his rallies, and even start campaigning for another term in 2024. Unless he’s in jail, of course. As to the balance of the paragraph, I don’t think any sentient being can argue with it, except that there’s a reasonable chance (not a probability) that Lindsey will be voted out of office.

Ruth Bader Ginsburg will resign, and Joe will replace her with a conserva-Dem that will get along just fine with Brett and Neal. After all, it’s terribly important that we appoint someone who will get some Republican support, even if we have enough Democratic Senators to shove an actual liberal down their throats. The fact that Republicans would never return the favor is absolutely irrelevant.

{Sigh}. Do I even need to comment on this one?

House Democrats will repass the progressive legislation that has died in Mitch McConnell’s Senate, and it will go to the Senate once again, where it will once again die at the hands of Republican filibusters, the filibuster being preserved at the urging of Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden, the latter of whom has not only predicted that the Republicans will have an epiphany and become reasonable once he gets into office but has also gone on record as being in favor of preserving the filibuster should he win. Much to his surprise, he will come to realize, perhaps three years into his presidency, that they had no epiphany. This won’t upset Joe very much anyway, because a lot of that legislation would undermine his campaign promise that there would be no fundamental change on his watch.

Well, the virus will certainly change this, as the House will have to pass legislation that will make the stuff they passed in the last two years look conservative. If we want to get the economy back on track we are going to have to shovel money into the hands of people that will spend it. Those are people who use their money to do things like pay rent, buy groceries, etc. I.e., Jeff Bezos and the rest of the billionaires need not apply. It will be more critical than ever to get rid of the filibuster, because the Republicans have only two political objectives: to get power and to shovel money to the rich. They will care not a jot whether the economy remains in the tank under a Democratic president; they will, in fact, do everything they can to keep it there, while they blame the Democrats. The question is: will Joe and Chuck shake their 1970s mindset and come to terms with the not-so-new reality? The answer is: probably not.

Much to his surprise, the lack of fundamental change will play right into Republican hands. They will score landslide victories in the 2022 elections (I know 2010 was a long time ago, but you can look it up). Democratic turnout will be dampened, while the yahoos will be out in full force, energized by ever louder racist dog whistles that only the punditry cannot hear.

See, the sigh above.

Trump and his partners in crime will escape unscathed, further greenlighting future Republican criminality.

Again, too obvious for further comment. 

The Republicans, in alliance with Fox News, will suddenly declare that the president is subject to the rule of law, and although they will have nothing valid on Biden, they will continue to spin conspiracy theories. William Barr will get a respectful hearing on CNN as he argues that a special prosecutor should be appointed to pursue those theories, and that Joe, seeing as he’s a Democrat, is not entitled to the benefits of the unitary executive theory. Come 2023, when the Republicans have taken back the House, and likely the Senate, they will move to impeach Biden on specious grounds, or at the very least, threaten to do so while conducting interminable investigations to distract from their primary goal of transferring our money to the already rich.

See above.

It goes without saying that the United States will do nothing significant to combat climate change.

See above.

If you’re looking for good news, it’s always possible that the Red Sox will win another World Series.

Not after trading Mookie, they won’t.

Bonus Prediction: Despite the fact that she’s disturbed that McConnell is fixing the Senate trial in league with the White House, Susan Collins will vote to acquit in the face of all the evidence. We can take some comfort from the fact that the voters of Maine will quite likely send her packing, but never fear, she’ll land a well paying gig on CNN to talk about moderation, both sides, and bipartisanship.

Looking good, so far.

All the above being said, it’s also obvious that the people of the United States will be far more miserable than I could have predicted in early January, not being privy to the information about the virus at the time. We can already see that this epidemic is being used as an opportunity to increase inequality and get more money and political power into the hands of the few. The unemployed of today will return to the even more low paying jobs of tomorrow. Small business persons, who on the whole reliably support Republicans, will be among the biggest losers, but they’ll be totally unable to see that they have been hung out to dry by the party they will continue to support. Our health care system will remain the horror show that it is. 

Okay, that’s it. The above was brought to you by a guy who, every year on Good Friday, advises you to look on the bright side of life.

Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself.