In the past, as the new year approached, I’ve often posted predictions for the coming year. I haven’t always been right, but I think I have a pretty good track record.
This year I’ve got almost nothing.
There are some things that are a given.
The media, particularly the broadcast media, will, by and large continue to both-side current events, ignoring the fact that there is only one party that is seeking to establish a fascist state. The Supreme Court will strip away abortion rights without making abortion technically illegal, as that can wait for a later date. The federal courts will also, when asked, give the green light to voter suppression tactics.
The elections in 2022 may very well be the most consequential since the election of 1860. If the Democrats can maintain their majorities in Congress and render Manchin and Sinema irrelevant, then they may be able to save the Republic. It will be an uphill battle, given the voter suppression that the courts will uphold, and the constant media assurances that of course the Republicans will take over both the House and the Senate, because 1) Democrats are always in disarray, and 2) the president’s party always loses in the mid-terms. Yada Yada Yada.
If the Democrats can’t pull it off, then the presidential election of 1860 will fall to second place behind that of 2016 so far as its impact on American history. It will go down as the beginning of the end of the American experiment in representative government. There is no way the Democratic candidate can win in 2024 if the voter suppression laws enacted this year are in force. It’s easy to win elections if you get to choose who gets to vote.
On a related note, it would be nice to think that the denizens of the Trump White House and their congressional co-conspirators will pay a price for inciting an insurrection, but I’m doubtful.
Of course it’s always possible that something good will happen in the coming year. Maybe the Red Sox will win the pennant.
Anyway, Happy New Year!
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