I am in Vermont at the moment, looking out of window at a snow scene, wondering why we ever came up here in the first place, given that we knew this snow was coming. Featured in the view from here is an extremely muddy road, recently scraped by a snow plow and now being sopped by the rain. When we got here we experienced a rather inconvenient thing: no heat. The propane company actually sent someone out right away, so we’re warm enough now, but not quite ready to hazard a trip outside. I’ve no doubt we can get out of the driveway, but I’m not quite sure we can get back in.
All of which should give me some impetus to put something on this now only occasional blog. What else is there to do?
I understand that the very stable genius has announced his candidacy for president in 2024. Opinions differ about his reasons for doing so. It is, of course, entirely possible he thinks he can win, though the recent results have to cast a bit of a pall over such thinking, since all of the folks promising to steal elections who were running for Secretary of State lost.
Personally, I think one of his motivations is his belief that announcing his candidacy somehow exempts him from being criminally charged for fomenting an insurrection and/or for stealing state secrets. It would not occur to him that such a dodge would be available to any criminal, which is why it’s unlikely to be a winner, lest the DOJ chooses to bring charges in Aileen Cannon’s court.
If he does manage to escape prison, my guess is that he’ll get the nomination, unless the Republican establishment (what’s left of it) can somehow jigger the system to eliminate primaries. Here in Connecticut we just experienced a textbook example of the influence of the whackjobs in primaries. Turnout was low in the Republican primary in August, but those who did turn out voted for Leora Levy, who was promptly crushed by Richard Blumenthal. Blumenthal would likely have beaten the endorsed candidate, but not by as much. Levy was hardly an outlier, Trumpists had a fairly high mortality rate in the recent election, though, alas, some broke through.
If Trump doesn’t get the Republican nomination, and isn’t in jail in 2024, I can easily see him running as a third party candidate. It’s not a scenario I’ve seen elsewhere, but I think it’s plausible. He’ll want to get his revenge on whoever is the nominee. We must always bear in mind that he really has no principles, so it’s all the same to him who’s president, if it isn’t him. That turn of events is probably the one that would be best for the Democrats, as he would siphon off enough voter to guarantee a Democratic victory.
The Republicans, of course, could have avoided all this by voting to convict him in the second impeachment. It was the obvious thing to do, but they didn’t do it, and it’s now coming back to haunt them.
At least we have to hope it will be haunting them.
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