So, the Democrat won convincingly in New York yesterday, cutting the Republicans’ razor thin majority in the House down even more. It was supposed to be close, but wasn’t. 2022 was supposed to be a Republican wave, but wasn’t. In fact, it appears to be the case that Democrats have outperformed the polls quite a bit over the past few years, which makes you wonder whether the polls themselves are as accurate as they once seem to have been.
There are, no doubt, several pollsters, such as Rasmussen, whose polls are designed to achieve results that can then be used by pundits to pontificate about the dismal fate of the Democrats. I was polled by Rasmussen recently, and I could tell by the way the questions were phrased that the point was to try to get results in line with Republican talking points.
I also wonder whether the methodologies used to select poll respondents are able to get a representative sample of the population as a whole. On line polls can’t help but being skewed, and I’m not sure it’s possible to get a representative sample by telephone these days. In any event, it seems clear that one can’t necessarily put one’s faith in polls these days.
Getting back to yesterday’s election, from what I’ve read it appears that the Democrat attacked the Republicans effectively on the immigration issue, making sure people were aware of their hypocrisy in refusing to vote on the Senate bill because the very stable genius told them not to do so. He made Trump the issue, and it worked. Every Democrat running for office this year should make Trump the issue.
The Republicans have put themselves in an awkward position in all but the districts that are chock full of idiots, of which, unfortunately, there are still quite a few. But in any district in which the electorate is somewhat rational, they are now faced with a choice. Embrace Trump, and keep the MAGA types, but lose a hefty proportion of the independents. Or, alternatively, keep your distance from Trump and try to appeal to the independents by lying about your intentions to pursue a “moderate” agenda, thereby losing the Trumpers. It’s a situation they created for themselves. Back in 2021 they should have dumped Trump down the memory hole like they did to Bush in 2008. Sure, he would have refused to be dumped, but if they were consistent about it they could have accomplished it. In fact, if they’d done the right thing and convicted him after he was impeached, he’d be disqualified from running and they could just run another nut case that they could sell more easily to the low information types.
Anything can happen, and there’s no doubt the Republicans are planning on stealing as many states as they can, but my money is on Biden at this point, though the media will continue to work hard to both sides the senility issue, emphasizing meaningless slips by Biden while ignoring Trump’s obvious mental decline, which, to be fair, is not that steep, since the starting point was not that high.
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