I’ve done this before. Sometimes my predictions have come true, and sometimes I’ve been spectacularly wrong, such as when I predicted in 2020 that Republicans would consign Trump to the same memory hole into which they dumped George W. Here’s hoping I’m spectacularly wrong again.
First, some predictions about very recent events. Trump has asked the Supreme Court to delay the legislated demise of TikTok:
Although Congress passed legislation giving President Joe Biden the authority to ban TikTok on Jan. 19 before leaving office, Trump has told the high court to delay the law until he takes office a day later. The law requires the president to ban TikTok if its parent company does not break ties with the Chinese Government. Trump has suggested he would find a way around the law after crediting the TikTok platform with helping him win the 2024 election.
The Supreme Court has scheduled oral argument prior to the inauguration. The “expert”, quoted at the linked article, a woman who formerly worked for Trump, says the court will rule against Trump. My guess is that she said the same thing before the immunity ruling. So, let’s be clear. There is no way that the court should rule for Trump. Congress passed a law and the law says what it says. Trump is not even president yet. He has no standing to bring the claim, and in any event, even if he did, he has no colorable legal argument to make. Nonetheless, I predict the court will rule in his favor, opening up an opportunity for him to take big bribes from TikTok for refusing to follow the dictates of the law. I express no opinion about whether Congress was colossally stupid when it passed the law in the first place.
Speaking of the court, should any of them retire, look to see Aileen Cannon getting a promotion.
Also speaking of the court, yesterday the Fedearl Appeals Court upheld the lower verdict in the Jeanne Carroll case. Again, this is a case that hardly merited an appeal, in which the arguments made by his attorneys were laughable on their face. Can’t find the link to another article I read, but they argued, among other things, that evidence from other victims of his sexual assaults, should not have been permitted, especially one who testified that the assault took place on a plane, the argument being that only land based assaults should be admissible. Again, the decision of the Appeals Court is entirely consistent with settled law. Look for the Supreme Court to overturn it by coming up with some bizarre rationale which, like all the other pro-Trump rulings, will carry the unwritten caveat that it only applies to Republican presidents, and possibly only to Donald Trump.
On to other subjects. If there is a single person Trump has nominated to any position that is actually qualified for the post, I haven’t heard about it. For the most part he has chosen people who are opposed to the statutory mission of the department they have been nominated to head, or, in the case of Tulsi Gabbard, are tools of the forces from whom her department is supposed to protect us. Many Republican senators have expressed reservations about many of these appointments. Each and every one of them will be voted into office. If any Republican opposes any of them it’s likely to be Lisa Murkowski. Susan Collins will be concerned, but will do as she has been told. Even McConnell will vote for RFK, Jr., even though he knows Kennedy will try to undermine the polio vaccine, something McConnell, who had polio himself, has said should not be done. RFK, Jr., will lie about his intentions. Everyone will know he is lying, but they will all pretend to believe him. In that he will be no different than all the other nominees. Each will lie about his or her intentions and every Republican voting for them will know they are lying.
When they lie, the mainstream media will sanewash it, like they sanewash everything Republican. There may be some reporting to the effect that the candidate has said something diametrically different in the past, but the fact that they are clearly lying will not be reported. Speaking of sanewashing, as Trump slides deeper and deeper into dementia, the media will find a way to simply not see it. That sort of stuff only matters if the person in question is a Democrat, in which case it is important to imply that a person who is not displaying any of the symptoms is slipping into dementia.
It hardly seems worth pointing out that the vast majority of the people who voted for him will be harmed by his policies. I’d like to believe the Democrats will get their act together and learn how to blame the Republicans for what Republicans do, but I’m certainly not predicting that. The Republicans will blame the Democrats for the harm Republicans cause, and the brainwashed majority in this country will believe them.
On the somewhat bright side, there’s maybe a 50-50 chance that we’ll have fair elections in 2026, though the Republicans will surely be test driving methods to assure that only they win elections.
Happy New Year.