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Another easy prediction

Friday, May 9, 2025

Yesterday I read a post by Dean Baker titled Productivity Tanks in the First Quarter. It’s behind a paywall so clicking on the link might not do you much good, though I do recommend becoming a Patreon subscriber of his, as he actually knows what he’s talking about. Anyway, the post begins as follows:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today released its first estimate of productivity in the first quarter. It showed productivity falling at a 0.8 percent annual rate. This is really bad news.

Productivity matters a lot for both inflation and living standards. In the five years from 2019 to 2024, productivity growth averaged 1.9 percent annually. That is up from 1.1 percent annually in the decade before the pandemic.

The faster rate of productivity growth most immediately translates into lower inflation. As a first approximation, inflation will be equal to nominal wage growth minus productivity growth. If nominal wages are growing at a 4.0 percent annual rate, and productivity is rising at a 1.9 percent annual rate, inflation will be roughly 2.1 percent. (We could have some redistribution from profits to wages, reversing the rise in profit shares in the pandemic, but we’ll leave that one for another time.)

I think it’s fair to say that we’ll be seeing more bad statistics in the near future, but I’m also fairly sure that the statistics released by the federal government after the near future will have the economy looking great. Isn’t it obvious that those bad statistics are the results of incompetent DEI hires and that the proper thing to do is to make up good statistics and release them instead? After all, it seems only right to consign those pesky little “facts” to the memory hole and replace them with alternative facts that are much more to our liking.

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A Trump flag that speaks true

Friday, May 2, 2025

I was somewhat taken aback by the opening paragraphs of this post at Crooks and Liars, written by LeftJabber:

For nearly eight years, I have regularly ridden my bicycle past a house that has faithfully flown a Trump flag, right underneath Old Glory, without interruption in all that time.

The flag has been refreshed over the years — from the original MAGA slogan, to “Keep America Great,” to “Trump 2024”— but the political commitment, and the willingness to proclaim it, have never wavered.

I have had the exact same experience. Most of my bike rides (I am obsessive and ride almost every day, except when it rains or snows), due to where my home is situated, begin with a climb up Fort Hill, reputed to be the steepest climb on Route 1 in the nation. At the top of the hill, just as I begin my descent, there has been a Trump flag under Old Glory since 2016.

But the similarities end there. LeftJabber writes that in his case, the flag has now come down, hopefully permanently, and he speculates that the Trumper, who he assumes is a male, may have recently reaped what he has sown.

Not so in the case of the Fort Hill Trumper. I have it on reasonably good authority that it is a woman, and her flags continue to fly. But here’s where it gets even weirder. After reading LeftJabber’s article I stopped on my bike ride, crossed the road to get close, and took this shot of the Fort Hill Trumper’s flags.

Okay, not the greatest shot, but I did my best. Sometimes I wonder if the Fort Hill Trumper has in fact seen the light, and has continued to fly her tattered flags as a metaphor for what Trump, his enablers, and those who pull his strings have done to the country. But alas, I’m not buying that that’s her intent. Even so, I think that’s the message that most people in this blue part of the state take away as they drive (or bike) by.

I should add that I have biked by a number of houses displaying Trump flags (though none for as long and as constantly as the Fort Hill Trumper), and in at least one case the flag has indeed come down. So, maybe, as LeftJabber speculates, some of these folks have seen the light, though it is always a mystery how anyone could not have seen it from the start.

UPDATE: A couple of days after I posted this I rode by the Fort Hill Trumper again, and it looked like the flags had been replaced with some of a non-tattered variety! I wasn’t sure, as I passed by quickly, but I’ve subsequently confirmed it. I leave it to the reader to decide whether the Fort Hill Trumper got feedback about this blog post. (Added on the 9th)

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Lindsay Graham deserves an Olympic Gold Medal

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

It would have to be in a new sport, but whatever.

When I first heard about this:

I figured it was a joke, but not only does Kevin Kruse vouch for it, but so does Newsweek.

Full text, as it’s not all on the picture:

“I was excited to hear that President Trump is open to the idea of being the next Pope,” the South Carolina Republican wrote alongside a video of Trump’s remarks. “This would truly be a dark horse candidate, but I would ask the papal conclave and Catholic faithful to keep an open mind about this possibility!”

Now, before I get to the medal, let me go on a bit about something else.

As I’ve noted on this blog previously, I have an advanced degree in theology, particularly Catholic theology, from Our Lady of Sorrows Grammar School in Hartford, Connecticut. I no longer consider myself a Catholic, as the fact is that a Catholic grammar school education is practically designed to create atheists, but I’m still up on all the rules. Now, I won’t spend too much time explaining why Trump could not be Pope, but just to show off my degree, I’ll just list a few of the reasons:

  • Trump is not a Catholic, though I admit he could take the JD Vance route and get himself baptized without actually believing any of the basic tenets of Christianity, you know, like love thy neighbor as thyself.
  • Trump is perhaps unique in the world for having broken all Ten Commandments. And I’m not talking mere venial sins, which we all commit. I’m talking the mortal kind, the kind that get you a quick trip to hell. Like, putting a false god (himself) in front of the fictitious god that Catholics are supposed to believe in. Then there’s bearing false witness, which is another way of saying you’re not supposed to lie, and when was the last time Trump told the truth. Let’s see. What else. Adultery? He’s got that covered. I won’t go on. The reader can fill in the blanks.
  • Trump doesn’t believe in God. That’s sort of a requirement for being Pope. As I pointed out above, he thinks he’s God.
  • There’s plenty more, but who has the time?

So, back to Lindsay and his Olympic medal. The new Olympic Event is called Competitive Sycophancy. There’s plenty of Republicans playing it these days. But no one has exceeded Lindsay. Pam Bondi, et.al. can just take a seat after this, or go for the silver or brass. They can kiss Trump’s ass as much as the want, but they’ll never cover it as completely as has Lindsay.

Now I can’t stop there. I must make the obligatory observation that once again our media will either ignore this or pass it off as normal. The Newsweek article to which I’ve linked, for instance, says not a word about the total absurdity of Graham’s tweet. They report it, and move on to other things regarding the dead Pope. They don’t even bother to say that no, it’s not a joke, he really tweeted this and he really meant it.

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Thea are Nazis, after all

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

I’m a fan of the bloggers over at Lawyers, Guns and Money but I sort of take issue with Erik Loomis’s objection to “liberals referencing Nazis all the time when talking about Trump instead of realizing everything he is doing is very, very American”.

He makes an entirely good argument that American history is littered with examples of American politicians destroying democracy and human rights. Examples include treatment of Native Americans, slavery, the institution of Jim Crow after slavery was technically abolished, and, something he doesn’t mention, the recurrent demonization of immigrants, whether they came from Ireland, Japan, China, or Southern Europe.

But I would submit there is a very good reason why liberals should stick to the Nazi comparison, which is perfectly legitimate. After all, the point of making the comparison is to try to stave off the destruction of democracy. You go with what works, or at least with what might work.

At least at the moment, most Americans still consider the Nazis to be bad guys. It is something that 99% of us agree on, putting aside the holocaust deniers and Stephen Millers among us. Nazis have been successfully demonized (and rightly so) so that if an American hears a comparison to Nazis, and recognizes the legitimacy of that comparison, he or she will more likely to be won over to the side of the person making that comparison. It’s a lot more difficult, given the fact that so many Americans do have a distorted view of American history, to score points by arguing that Trump and his fellow fascists are just like some Americans of the past, Americans about whom most present day Americans are surpassingly ignorant. So I’m glad that folks on our side, such as Al Gore, are making the comparison. It may or may not work, but it has a better chance of working than trying to get people to rethink the American past.

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Another easy prediction

Thursday, April 24, 2025

Apparently it is the case that Ron DeSantis and his wife have been stealing money big time from the people of Florida.

The Miami Herald/Tampa Bay Times obtained a copy of an early iteration of the settlement agreement between Centene and the state that confirms the $10 million “donation” Centene made to the Hope Florida Foundation represented the return of taxpayer dollars stemming from Medicaid overpayments.

…

Hope Florida is the non-profit headed up by Casey “Lady MacBeth” DeSantis, who seems to want to run for governor now that husband Ron has term limits. Now, what seems to have happened is, an assorted cast of Republican miscreants from the DeSantis orbit collaborated to move $10 million of that Centene payment to Hope Florida and then, almost immediately, to two PACs pushing to help Ron DeSantis claim victory in stopping recreational marijuana.

The article to which I’ve linked also points out that DeSantis just appointed an attorney general who, himself, should probably be on the side of the courtroom opposite the prosecutor, and not as the defense attorney.

So the title to the post to which I’ve linked is, and perhaps the title was written jokily: Will Ron And Casey Go To Jail Over $10M They ALLEGEDLY Diverted?.

So, I think I can answer that question. It is now impossible for a Republican politician to break the law, since the laws do not apply to them. Ron will retire from his term limited job in peace, and his wife, who is looking to succeed him will likely do so.

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Another Good Friday (One Day Late)

Saturday, April 19, 2025

I’ve been writing this blog for 20 years, though gone are the days when I posted almost every day. But if memory serves (and at my age it doesn’t always) I have maintained a Good Friday tradition since that long ago time. Every year I post a video of Monty Python’s Always Look on the Bright Side of Life.

This year I’ve had to give a lot of thought to whether the tradition should live on, as I’m having a lot of trouble looking on the bright side. Or, more accurately, I’m having trouble finding a bright side. We no longer stand at the brink of living in a fascist state. We do live in a fascist state.There’s a remote possibility that we can overcome those fascists, but it seems clear they intend to nullify the voice of the people in order to keep in power.

The lack of any bright side is one of the reasons that I have blogged so infrequently lately. There really doesn’t seem much to comment about, as everything seems so obvious. The future we left wing radical nutcases have been warning about for years is now here.

But we can’t give up. While there’s life there’s hope. So, in that spirit, the tradition lives on.

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No one has topped Trump on this score

Monday, April 14, 2025

While perusing this article yesterday I once again started thinking about yet another Trump record breaker. The article lists the bribes paid to Trump by various tech folks, in return for which he just exempted their products from tariffs, though he is apparently now claiming that the tariffs were never placed in the first place. Since he’s making that claim, it is obviously a lie.

I don’t pretend to be an expert on fascism, though I know it when I see it, so I don’t know if financial corruption is always in the mix, but I do know a bit about American history, and I’m sure that Trump’s corruption, is unique in American history.

Grant’s administration was riddled with corruption, but Grant himself was not corrupt. The people around him took advantage of him in order to line their own pockets. There have been other administrations that have had corrupt actors in high places. Harding’s administration comes to mind. But again, I’m not aware that Harding himself was personally corrupt, certainly not in the mind blowing way in which Trump and his cronies are corrupt.

I am not sure, but I think that the people around Grant and Harding tried to hide the corruption, but the folks around Trump, and Trump himself, appear to consider that unnecessary. Consider the fact that Musk is obviously using his position to award his companies government contracts. Consider also that Trump’s minions traded off their advance knowledge that he was going to “pause” some of his tariffs.

Now, I admit, at least one president was fairly open about his own personal corruption. That would be Trump I, who, among other things, made it clear that if you were from another country, and wanted something from him, you would stay at his Washington hotel where you would pay top dollar for your lodgings. And there’s the fact that he overcharged the secret service for housing the idiots who were apparently willing to give their own lives to protect his. I’m sure there are other examples, but he wasn’t quite so open about it as he is now.

This time around he’s made the former Trump look like a model of rectitude. And, as before, the media prefers to pretty much look the other way. Sure, these things get mentioned, but alway swiftly forgotten.

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Demonstrations today

Saturday, April 5, 2025

Just got back from the demonstration in New London. I really got a kick out of the signs people made. Here are some of the best:

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Where to they find these people?

Sunday, March 30, 2025

One of the truly amazing things about the current Republican Party is the number of people who have been elected (or appointed) to powerful positions who are amazingly stupid. I’m not just talking about the individual who currently holds the title of President while someone else is actually calling the shots.

Consider this. Congresswoman Victoria Sparts of Indiana has opined that “You violated the law, you are not entitled to due process”.

Now the stupidity involved here is not the fact that the whole point of due process is to determine whether you in fact violated the law, rather than letting the state simply pronounce you guilty and impose punishment. After all, imposing a regimen where you are guilty if charged with no opportunity to prove otherwise, whether the burden of proof is on you or the state, is exactly what fascists do, and exactly what our fascists are trying to do.

No, the truly stupid part is saying it out loud, because we’re still at a stage in the transition to fascism that Republicans have to at least pretend that there’s nothing to see here and no one is taking away anyone’s rights. Really, Victoria, you need to be a little more subtle about these things. Dress it up a bit differently. Sort of like this, from the guy who represents Stonington in the Connecticut legislature:

See? Just a bit more subtle. But, give him credit, just as stupid.

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A prediction

Monday, March 24, 2025

We read here that Pete Hegseth, the totally unqualified Secretary of Defense, conducted top secret discussions on signal and looped in a reporter from the Atlantic:

At 11:44 a.m., the account labeled “Pete Hegseth” posted in Signal a “TEAM UPDATE.” I will not quote from this update, or from certain other subsequent texts. The information contained in them, if they had been read by an adversary of the United States, could conceivably have been used to harm American military and intelligence personnel, particularly in the broader Middle East, Central Command’s area of responsibility. What I will say, in order to illustrate the shocking recklessness of this Signal conversation, is that the Hegseth post contained operational details of forthcoming strikes on Yemen, including information about targets, weapons the U.S. would be deploying, and attack sequencing.

The only person to reply to the update from Hegseth was the person identified as the vice president. “I will say a prayer for victory,” Vance wrote. (Two other users subsequently added prayer emoji.)

The reporter to whom these were sent, Jeffrey Goldberg, at first thought it might be some sort of hoax, but it soon became clear that it was not. Goldberg was privy to a lot of classified information, which he has not revealed, but he has revealed the fact that he was included in this exchange.

So, here’s my prediction. This story will get a bit of play in the media. The New York Times may even put it on the front page, but it will then be forgotten, because after all, this is a Republican massively screwing up, and that’s not news. If a Democrat had done it, it would never be forgotten until that Democrat resigned, which he or she should do, just as Hegseth should. Of course, no Republican in Congress will care. Even Susan Collins won’t be concerned.

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