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Almost in words of one syllable

Friday, May 29, 2020

If you have any Trumper friends who can’t quite see the point of social distancing, mask wearing, or other rational responses to the current plague, you might try referring them to this article, which spells it out so clearly even a six year old could understand it. I realize that would mean a certain very stable genius would still have a hard time understanding, but it might be a start.

I especially enjoyed this explanation of exponential growth:

A popular way to understand how a virus can appear to “suddenly” explode into a local epidemic is the example of a pond and a lily pad.

On day one, the pond is clear of vegetation and somebody puts a single lily pad plant into it—one that doubles every day. By the 30th day, the pond is entirely covered with lily pads and you can’t see the water.

The question that’s key to understanding what this has to do with COVID-19 is: “On what day was the pond half-covered by lily pads?”

People who don’t know science would say that it’s probably halfway through the 30 days—day 15, or sometime around then, maybe day 20.

But the correct answer is day 29, the day before “half-covered” doubles and becomes “fully covered.”

Similarly, the day when the pond was one-quarter covered was day 28—two days before it was entirely covered. It was one-eighth covered (far less worrisome) on day 27, three days before it was entirely covered.

Although it may take more than just one day for COVID-19 incidents to double, this explains why one day it seems like there are just a few cases and within a week or two hospitals are “suddenly” overwhelmed, and unthinkable numbers of people are gasping for air and dying.

Not to carp, but that must be a pretty big pond. At day thirty there would be 2^29 lily pads in that pond, which, if I’m not mistaken, would amount to a bit more than half a billion lily pads. I think we’d have to promote it to a lake.

Quibbles aside, it’s a good article.

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Lessons learned

Friday, May 29, 2020

Susan Collins famously said that Trump would learn his lesson from his impeachment. She was absolutely right, and I think her opponents in Maine should admit as much in commercial after commercial in the state of Maine.

For instance, Trump learned the lesson that he can sell weapons to the Saudis if he wants, no matter what Congress may say, because there’s nothing on God’s earth that the United States Senate will do about it.

He’s also learned that he can legislate without needing to go through Congress, which takes such a long time and can be so inconvenient, especially when the whole point of your executive order is to take revenge on a perceived political enemy.

And those are only the lessons we know he’s learned from what’s happened in the past two days! It’s almost impossible to count the number of ways that, over the past few months, he’s proven that he learned his lesson from the impeachment.

Sure, the whole point of politics is to score a victory against your political foes, but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be prepared to admit that they were absolutely right when they were. I just hope that the Democrats can find it in their hearts to be humble, and remind the voters of Maine how right Susan was when she made that prediction.

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A Special Talent

Friday, May 22, 2020

It takes a special talent to fearlessly stand astride both sides of an issue, but our State Senator, Heather Somers, has it down to a T. Republicans these days must walk a fine line. They must satisfy their base while not alienating “moderate” Republicans who have not yet come to terms with the fact that their parent’s Republican Party now consists of a corrupt party elite that derives its power from a fascist base. Heather is a master of, as the Firesign Theatre might sing, being in two places at once when, on close examination, she’s not anywhere at all.

Latest example: a whackjob hair dresser in Pawcatuck decided that she was going to open her barber shop on the 20th, despite Lamont’s order to defer such re-openings. For any readers who might be from outside this region, Pawcatuck is part of Stonington, the most easterly community on the coast. It borders directly on Rhode Island. In fact, were you passing through for the first time, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Pawcatuck and Westerly, Rhode Island were one town. The whole point of Lamont’s amended order was to synchronize salon openings with Rhode Island, so while the order made sense everywhere, it made more sense in Pawcatuck than anywhere else.

Heather was on hand for the woman’s arrest to…well…, to show that she both supported the woman and that she did not support the woman. At least that’s the best I can gather from this article in the New London Day.

First, there’s this:

State Sen. Heather Somers, who accompanied Thibodeau to the police station on Thursday, said “nobody is interested in having anything have to happen.”

Okay, I have to confess that that my grammar school teachers, Sister Thomas and Sister Joseph Theresa, who drilled us on these things, would be disappointed in me right now. I believe I could make a stab at diagramming that quote to their satisfaction, but for the life of me I can’t figure out if it contains any meaningful content. Brilliant, really, because anyone who wants to believe that Heather is on their side can read their preferred meaning into it.

Then we learn:

Somers said she showed up to support her constituent but not to encourage her decision either way. She attended the meeting between Thibodeau and Stonington police Cap. Todd Olson, she said, to help Thibodeau understand “what the process looks like so she can understand how to proceed or not proceed.”

You see, she’s not trying to signal to her whackjob base or encourage this woman at all as she accompanies her to booking. Heather always makes sure she’s there to lend a hand any time a constituent announces in advance that they intend to commit a criminal offense. It’s just part of her job.

Anyway, Heather can see both sides of the issue:

On Thursday, Somers said she thinks people defying or protesting the governor’s order to keep salons and barber shops closed are confused about why getting a haircut poses such a risk in the governor’s eyes.

“How is that any less safe than going to a big box store?” she said. “I think that’s what people are struggling with, but the governor’s order is the governor’s order, we have to follow the law. It’s been clarified, it’s clear, so we have to see how things go.”

You see, even Heather is confused. Some might say that explaining the reason why hair salons pose a greater risk than big box stores might be a job for Obviousman, but lets cut Heather some slack. Sure, as a member of the Health Committee she should be expected to know or research the reason salons are less safe. If she’s really curious, she could ask her cardiologist husband who, though not an epidemiologist, could probably explain the reason in words of one syllable that she could understand and even pass along to her base, not that any of the Foxaholics would listen. But she has only so much time on her hands and you can’t expect her to actually read up on these things or even give them a little thought. In case you’re confused too, the Day’s reporter noted:

In its original letter directing barbers, hairdressers, cosmetologists, nail technicians, estheticians, eyelash technicians and massage therapists to close, the state Department of Public Health told them, “The nature of your profession puts you in direct contact with your clients and customers. Therefore, the risk of transmission if you or a client is infected is higher than professions that do not require direct contact.”

As Obviousman might say: DUH!

Now, for myself, I can’t muster up sympathy for the other whackjob interviewed in the linked article who just has to get his haircut now. I have no problem with letting my freak flag fly almost as much as it did back in the 70s (albeit, a bit grayer) when we endured the second most crooked president in history. Almost makes me feel young again, until my wife assures me I’m deluded. But I will remember, if it crosses my mind to break the law, to let Heather know in advance so she can hold my hand when they take me down to the police station.

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C’mon Donald, You’re not supposed to say this out loud

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Gosh, the very stable genius just let a cat out of a bag, not that anyone hadn’t heard the cat mewling away in there. I mean, I thought Republicans were supposed to pretend that Fox is just another television network with a bunch of straight shooters, but here’s the genius tweeting us differently:

Many will disagree, but Fox News is doing nothing to help Republicans, and me, get re-elected on November 3rd. Sure, there are some truly GREAT people on Fox, but you also have some real “garbage” littered all over the network, people like Dummy Juan Williams, Schumerite Chris Hahn, Richard Goodstein, Donna Brazile, Niel Cavuto, and many others. They repeat the worst of the Democrat speaking points, and lies. All of the good is totally nullified, and more. Net Result = BAD! CNN & MSDNC are all in for the Do Nothing Democrats! Fox WAS Great!

His basic premises is a lie, of course, but it contains an admission of what Fox actually is, which is no news to anyone but you’re still not supposed to say it out loud.

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Evil is the only word for it

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

When does political corruption become malevolent evil? We’ve likely seen many instances, but in this time when politicians of all stripes are falling all over themselves to “thank” the people who are on the frontlines during this plague, this must surely take the cake:

More than 40,000 National Guard members currently helping states test residents for the coronavirus and trace the spread of infections will face a “hard stop” on their deployments on June 24 — just one day shy of many members becoming eligible for key federal benefits, according to a senior FEMA official.

The official outlined the Trump administration’s plans on an interagency call on May 12, an audio version of which was obtained by POLITICO. The official also acknowledged during the call that the June 24 deadline means that thousands of members who first deployed in late March will find themselves with only 89 days of duty credit, one short of the 90-day threshold for qualifying for early retirement and education benefits under the Post-9/11 GI bill.

They are doing it on purpose. It’s not just some unfortunate coincidence.

This is the same administration about which there have been an untold number of stories concerning diversion of emergency funds to grifters and donors. It’s almost as if they can’t stop themselves from being evil. There’s no political advantage to doing this, and the amount of money involved is probably paltry compared to what they’ve grifted.

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How stupid do you have to be to teach at Harvard Law?

Saturday, May 16, 2020

This is truly bizarre. A Harvard Law Professor is representing a couple of presidential electors who claim that they should be free to vote for anyone they want, despite state laws requiring them to vote for the candidate for whom they pledged to vote when they got on the ballot in the first place.

But, if we are to believe reports, we need have no fear that a victory for these plaintiffs would further undermine our already unfair presidential election process.

Harvard Law professor Larry Lessig, who represents the plaintiffs, is aware of that possibility. Indeed, it seems to be his goal. Lessig wants to make the Electoral College so wacky and unpredictable that the entire country turns against it, then adopts a constitutional amendment creating a nationwide popular vote for president. The justices appeared to be aware of this end goal on Wednesday. And they had no apparent interest in facilitating Lessig’s master plan.

Assuming Lessig’s motives are being fairly reported, one must ask, how stupid do you have to be to teach at Harvard Law? Here are the chances that a constitutional amendment to elect the president by popular vote would get a two thirds vote in Congress and pass in two thirds of the states: Zero.

There is no way that the sparsely populated red states needed to garner those percentages would give up the outsize influence they have over the selection of the president, just as they would never go along with a reform that would enable the majority of the people in this country to actually determine government policy by, for instance, giving populated states such as California a greater voice in the Senate than states like Wyoming. It is simply not going to happen. That particular bit of bad judgment by our sainted Founders may eventually pave our road to ruin, but it will never be reformed. If Lessig were to win his case, the most likely result would be that state legislatures, particularly in the red states, would simply exercise their constitutional prerogative to name the electors on their own without input from the voters at all. In my opinion, there’s a very real chance that gerrymandered legislatures like that in Wisconsin may try exactly that very soon. After all, it’s what the Founders originally intended, and as Hamilton and Madison assured us, the electors chosen would surely be the wisest and most prudent among us.

Maybe Lessig is too busy to read the newspapers. It is a sad day when the current Supreme Court appears set to be the voice of reason, but it appears to be the case that even this Supreme Court isn’t ready to destroy the Republic in this particular way.

Filed in Dysfunction, Lawyer stuff | | Comments (0)

Yet one more complaint about wussy Democrats

Thursday, May 14, 2020

A couple of days ago I whined about the fact that Democrats operated from a defensive crouch, and that one way to keep them in that crouch was to throw the word “deficit” at them. Despite the fact that, as Krugman endlessly points out, the Republicans have been deficit hypocrites since 1980, the media treats their protestations seriously and takes it as a given that deficit concerns are legitimate concerns at all times that Republicans mouth them, despite the fact that actual economists don’t agree. It is, of course, also deeply frustrating that the press ignores the issue when Republicans needlessly increase the deficit by throwing money at rich people.

I put it this way: If you borrow money to buy a house, that’s perfectly reasonable and probably prudent. It’s called an investment If you borrow money to throw a party, you may be asking for trouble. Republicans borrow money to throw parties.

Which brings me to this article in this morning’s New York Times. The Democrats in the House have actually proposed a bill that isn’t primarily a giveaway to the major corporations. So naturally, we get this in an article about the Fed chief’s warning that we need more financial support our there:

Yet the warning comes as discussions of additional rescue measures have run aground, with Democrats proposing sweeping new programs and Republicans voicing concerns over the swelling federal budget deficit, which is projected to hit $3.7 trillion this year. President Trump and his economic advisers have pressed the pause button on negotiations for additional spending, waiting to see how much the economy rebounds as states begin lifting restrictions on business activity.

If you read to the end (which almost no one ever does) you’ll see that the Fed chief dismisses deficit concerns. What you won’t read is anything about the Republican hypocrisy on the deficit, either from the Times itself, or from Democrats. How about something like: Republicans are fine with needlessly growing the deficit to benefit their contributors, but when it comes time to help the American people suddenly it’s all they care about. It’s the same playbook every time. Yadda yadda yadda.

I’m sure if they thought about it a bit they could come up with some catchy phrases. You know, go on the attack.

I’m no economist, but I know enough to assert with confidence that in our current situation, the best thing for the economy is to give money to the people and let it trickle up, rather than rely on trickle down. I’m sure a lot of people going through dire times right now would agree. It’s not enough for the Democrats to make good proposals, they have to be loudmouthed about it.

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Yes, it’s wrong, but…

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

I must say that after seeing all the coverage of armed militia men in Michigan standing up for their right to infect other people, I got a bit of a kick out of this bit of lawless behavior by someone on our side:

The state is reconsidering its policy after a hacker released a script that automatically submits junk data to its ‘COVID-19 fraud’ website, which allows employers to report workers who refuse to work during the pandemic.

The state of Ohio won’t deny unemployment benefits to people who refuse to work during the COVID-19 pandemic after people targeted the website it was using to track these workers, according to officials at the state’s Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS).

The state previously set up a “fraud” website encouraging employers to report those who refused to go back on the job, angering workers and labor rights advocates. State officials say they are now reconsidering the policy after Motherboard reported that a hacker created a script to flood the “COVID-19 Fraud” website with junk data, with the goal of making it impossible to process these claims.

Yes, it’s wrong, but unlike the militia men, these hackers are on the side of the angels. Ohio’s policy is egregiously despicable. One has to wonder whether this bit of protest will get the coverage from the mainstream that it has given to what are often sparsely attended demonstrations by the Nazis.

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Crazy man on the loose and no one notices

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

This article about the press’s insistence on covering demonstrations by the right at which “more than a dozen” protestors show up, against a history of minimizing or ignoring anti-war demonstrations drawing 10s of thousands of people, got me thinking about another eternal media mystery.

Why does the media insist on hardly noticing Trump’s ever increasing signs of mental illness.

On Sunday Trump emitted an average of one tweet every seven minutes. Needless to say, they were all about him or his grievances, even targeting Madonna for reasons that escape me. Parenthetically, it was Mother’s Day during a plague, but of course it never occured to him to make reference to the sacrifices that Mothers (fathers too) are making for their kids in these trying times. All in all, on that single day, he emitted more signs of mental illness than the average mentally ill person does in a week. On the continuum used back when I represented disability clients, he is extremely impaired. What’s particularly bad is that while he’s not particularly a danger to himself, he is quite definitely a danger to others.

I suppose the media would argue that this is not news, inasmuch as it is normal behavior for Trump. But the fact is, it is abnormal behavior for anyone, and people should know about it, not just the people who read blogs in addition to reading newspapers and/or watching television news. It is vitally important that people are confronted with the reality of the very sick man that we have in the White House. Believe it or not, his actions are actually worse, and deserve as much comment as, the act of wearing a tan suit.

Filed in The Very Stable Genius | | Comments (0)

Friday Night Music, a song for the times

Friday, May 8, 2020

I first heard this song on a CD I bought back in 1992: American Dreamer, by Thomas Hampson. I never heard of the guy before, but he turned out to have a great voice. The album is a collection of songs by Stephen Foster. Unfortunately, while you can listen to his version on youtube, there’s no accompanying video, so I’m going with this one, by Bob Dylan, who can’t hold a candle to Hampson so far as his voice goes, but who does a great job as well. It’s a song for our times, and reminds us that it’s the folks already at the bottom that suffer the most at times like these.

https://youtu.be/SevgjjSovfc

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