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What’s your poison, Trump or Cruz?

This is hardly a scientific poll, but I would be willing to bet that were one to poll sane, informed people the results would be similar to what I’ve concluded.

I have asked a number of people who they would choose if they knew that either Trump or Cruz would actually become president, moving to Canada being off the table, implicitly or explicitly. So far, no one has chosen Cruz. Not only have their responses been unanimous, but there reasons have been quite similar, and I must say I agree.

Don’t get me wrong. Either one would be a disaster. Let me articulate my own reasoning, which as I say, is roughly similar to what everyone else seems to think.

First, let’s start with the proposition that it is highly unlikely that Trump would, in fact, be any worse than Cruz would be. Sure, he sometimes expresses himself in ways that even Cruz avoids, but note that while Cruz puts rhetorical distance between himself and Trump, he is careful to avoid disagreeing with him on substance. So, even if Trump ended up being as bad as he promises to be, we are no worse off than if we had gotten Cruz, who is infinitely more likely to do what he says he will do than is Trump.

Along these lines, almost everyone agrees, there is little if any reason to believe that Trump would be as bad as he is promising to be. He really makes no bones about the fact that one can never take him at his word. He’s a businessman, and says and does what he needs to get what he wants, and that’s precisely what he’s doing now. There is no question that Cruz would do whatever he could, for instance, to restrict women’s access to abortion and even to birth control. In my own humble opinion, despite what he’s said, the Donald would do nothing on either score. If there’s one issue on which it’s absolutely clear that he’s pandering, it’s abortion. Similarly, it’s quite unlikely that he’d mount an all out assault on gay rights. It’s just not something he cares about. There are probably one or two right wing issues that he would push hard on, just by way of keeping his cred with his base. I’d say he’d pick immigration. But, for the most part, it is quite likely that he would walk away from his campaign rhetoric in the same way he walks away from responsibility for his business ventures.

It is perfectly possible that this analysis is wrong. Everyone I’ve spoken to agrees that’s a possibility. But the thing is, even if Trump was as bad as everyone expects, he would probably still not be as bad as Cruz would be. Even here, unfortunately, there’s a caveat, though it’s one that I’m less worried about now than I was a month or so ago. Back then there seemed the very real possibility that, were Trump elected, he might become an American Mussolini, something Cruz, given his personality, could never become. While this remains a distinct possibility, it seems more unlikely now, since Trump is no longer the dominant force he was a month ago, and will likely be weakened more as the election approaches.

Now, all this being said, it doesn’t answer the strategic question of which of them one would prefer as the candidate. Our candidate will no doubt (or almost no doubt) be Hillary. Which could she more easily beat? That’s a harder question. My gut tells me that once again, Trump is our man, but that’s really not clear. Cruz, by reputation, is a first class asshole, and it’s quite possible that the public would tumble to that. But that requires a press that reports about the real Cruz, and if he beats Trump to the nomination, it’s likely we won’t be hearing about the real Cruz. Rather, we’ll be hearing that he is the moderate “not-Trump”, the guy the Republican Party turned to after regaining its sanity after a flirtation with Trump.

In the end, though, both of these questions are totally academic, in that we will never be faced with this particular choice. If the Party establishment decides to steal it from Trump, they won’t gift it to Cruz. He is merely their convenient stalking horse. They’ve got Paul Ryan waiting in the wings. If there’s a brokered convention, the folks who decide will be the money men, and Ryan is their candidate, now that their other flunkies, (Jeb! and Marco) have crashed and burned.

I detect a flaw in this argument

Let me start this by saying that there are people on both side of the Hillary-Bernie divide that indulge in this sort of thing, but being as I’m in the tank for Bernie, I prefer to pick on those that are in the tank for Hillary. Besides, I really think I’ve managed to avoid descents into total absurdity, such as this one by D.R. Tucker, at Political Animal:

I fear Team Sanders will simply dismiss his woes with black voters as a consequence of black “loyalty” to the Clintons, despite the fact that the “loyalty” argument can’t explain why black voters ultimately supported Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary. (Hopefully Sanders’s supporters won’t try to blame the media again for his diversity deficit.)

via Political Animal

When I started to write this piece I had an explanation in mind for the reason “black voters ultimately supported Barack Obama”, but it has slipped my mind. I know it will come to me, as it seemed obvious right away after I read the above paragraph. It has something to do with some characteristic of Obama’s that Bernie doesn’t share. I’m sure it will likely pop into the mind of anyone who happens to read this piece, because like I said it seemed so obvious, and the only reason I’ve lost it is that I’m getting old and senile.

Political Animal is a widely read blog. Judging by the comments to the piece, its more avid readers are also old and senile, because none of them seem to have noticed the glaring problem with the paragraph I’ve quoted. As I said, both sides probably do this sort of thing, but this one is so blatantly absurd I had to highlight it.

The absurdities in the article don’t stop there, by the way. How’s this for presumption:

I’ve argued before that Sanders’s economic vision alienates African-Americans who believe well-regulated capitalism, not “democratic socialism,” can best advance their economic interests

I don’t know if Tucker is black or white, but I really question whether anyone can speak for the entire African-American community, particularly since most people, whatever their color, don’t speak or think in those terms. And what, pray tell, makes Tucker think that capitalism will be “well-regulated” under this Clinton, anymore than it was under the last one, who relieved the bankers of almost all regulation and set the table for the economic meltdown from which we have still not recovered.

Hillary speaks, says nothing

So, I read here that HIllary got pissed at a questioner who asked her if she would stop taking money from the oil industry, when she doesn’t get any money from the oil industry, but it just so happens that lots of her contributors work there. The oil industry only gives to her PAC, and that’s entirely different.

But that’s not what this post is about. This post is about the fact that, if we didn’t know her backstory, we could never haves the slightest idea, judging by what comes out of her mouth, what she will do as president. The linked article goes on to contrast her position on fossil fuel extraction on public lands with Bernie’s position on the same issue. Bernie is against it, by the way, and has said so. Here’s Hillary:

Public lands in Nevada and across the West provide a wide range of benefits, from open spaces for recreation to resources that support grazing, energy production, and other uses. It is vital that the priorities, needs, and vision of local communities help shape the management of America’s public lands, and I would work to improve and support local, state, and federal collaboration. – See more at: http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2016/04/clinton-goes-off-on-greenpeace-activist.html#.dpuf

Well, that tells us all we need to know, doesn’t it? This is the person who started her candidacy by conducting a “listening tour”, her way of telling us that we may know what we want, but she knows what we need. But she won’t be telling us until she’s safely elected. 

In a way she’s a bit like Trump. No one, perhaps even Trump, knows what he would actually do if he became president. He’s just keeping the customers satisfied until he closes the sale. With Hillary, it’s not that we don’t have an awfully good idea of what she’ll do as president, it’s just that we could never judge by listening to what she says on the campaign trail.

Having said all this, let me hasten to disabuse all of the notion that I may be one of those doctrinaire Bernie people who would refuse to vote for her if she’s the one left standing. I will, but I’ll do so knowing that I’m delivering the country once more into the hands of Wall Street and that she will do little to nothing to address the two most pressing problems we have: climate change and inequality. Unfortunately, this may be our last chance to get it right on both scores.

Look on the bright side 

There is a bright side to everything, or, if we must sink even deeper into cliche, a silver lining on every cloud. Donald Trump may or may not be an existential threat (who really knows what he would do if elected?), but he has proven useful in some ways.

When asked if he would punish women for getting abortions, the Donald allowed that he would. The other Republican candidates have been distancing themselves from his statement (without, of course, actually disagreeing with him in any meaningful way ), even though, at least in the case of Cruz, their stance on abortion is worse (no rape or incest exclusion for Cruz) than Donald’s. And, of course, their opposition to abortion is probably more intense, because it’s even odds the Donald wouldn’t lift a finger to stop abortion if he were elected.

This is yet another example of a salutary service the Donald is doing for the nation. He is saying out loud what Republicans have been telegraphing to their supporters for years. In the case of the abortion punishment question, Donald was just following the logic of his new found opposition to abortion. Of course if it is against the law to have an abortion, those that participate in an abortion must be punished. It logically follows. It especially follows if abortion is classified as murder, which is precisely the way they categorize it. How can you, at one and the same time assert that a woman who has an abortion is murdering an innocent life and, as Cruz is asking us to believe, that rather than punish we should instead “affirm their dignity and the incredible gift they have to bring life into the world”, whatever that phrase may mean in this context. It is to be hoped, though it is by no means certain, given the current state of our media, that it will, in future, be far more difficult for Republicans to use dogwhistles, now that Trump has made their meaning clear.

Donald lets me down

This is rather disappointing.

Whoops. Turns out that running a campaign based on personality and free media, without much actual campaign organization, can turn around and bite you, something Donald Trump is starting to find out. Trump is winning primaries, but that’s not the whole ballgame. In many states, convention delegates are chosen after the primaries … and Ted Cruz’s campaign is swooping in and organizing, working to pick up every possible delegate while Trump’s campaign has been sitting back and assuming the delegates were in the bag. The big question is what happens if Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 delegates and the nomination goes to a second vote at the Republican National Convention:

via Daily Kos

As I understand it, the party apparatchiks get to pick the delegates, who will be duty bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot, but will then be free to vote for whomsoever they please. Or, whoever their party leaders tell them pleases them. So, looks like Paul Ryan may be nominated yet. For a guy who is a master of the Art of the Deal, a guy who will give those foreigners “what fer”, (as Georgie Russell advised Davy Crockett to do at the Alamo), and will even talk our friends to the South into building our wall for us, Trump has proven to be surprisingly inept. Well, not surprisingly. As Elizabeth Warren has pointed out, he’s really been somewhat of a failure as a business person, and has succeeded only by virtue of braggadocio. Not for him the serious work of learning the rules and figuring out the angles. He doesn’t even have people for that. He alone, he tells us, can put the rest of the world in its place, but he can’t even make sure he has loyal delegates.

But, back to my main point. This is disappointing for those of us rooting for a brokered convention, one that slowly descends into chaos as the ballots mount. Had Trump gone to the trouble to make sure he had loyal delegates in all the states in which he has pledged delegates, we could have expected a massive floor fight with much weeping and gnashing of teeth. Presumably he will still have some loyalists, but it would be so much juicier if there was a full complement. And, while we’re on the subject, am I the only person out here who’s slightly disappointed that the Secret Service ran interference for the RNC and put the kibosh on allowing open carry at the convention? The Republicans could have given a whole new meaning to the phrase “floor fight”.

Suggested Reading

I don’t know if this full article is available online to non-subscribers, but it should be required reading for all my fellow Democrats that try to peddle the line that Hillary is substantively better than Bernie.

Traditional Good Friday music and more

This is Good Friday, so like all good graduates of Our Lady of Sorrows grammar school, I must make note of the day. It is a day sacred to Christians. Even many of us heathens get it off, so I am able to sit here at home and write this blog post.

I am not a Christian. Republicans are Christians. I know because they tell me so, and they wouldn’t lie, would they? So, I know I’m not a Christian, because there are some things I believe, that are inconsistent with Christianity, as near as I can figure, based on what I’ve learned about Christianity from Republicans.

I believe in feeding the hungry. Christians don’t.

I believe in healing the sick. Christians don’t.

As I mentioned, it’s good Friday, when we recall a man who was given the death penalty for a crime he did not commit. I believe that innocent people should not suffer the death penalty. Christians don’t. In fact, I don’t believe anyone should get the death penalty. See the previous link.

There are a lot of other things I believe that Christians don’t believe. I believe we should try to give shelter to the homeless, aid to the disabled, and a decent life to the aged. I don’t know where I got these ideas, but it clearly wasn’t from Christians.

So, I guess I’m not a Christian. But I think I’m in good company. There was this guy, for instance, who lived 2000 years ago….

Anyway, this is neither here nor there. There is a Good Friday tradition on this blog, and I can’t let it fall by the wayside. Words and lyrics of wisdom we should all take to heart in these dark times.

A modest proposal: dealing with Trump

A very perceptive woman, with whom I happen to reside, pointed out to me that the Republican primary battles was like nothing more than the battles that take place on middle school playgrounds, a theme I used in a recent post. Donald Trump is the schoolyard bully, the guy who can zero in on the weaknesses of each of his playmates. The process is particularly painful for the bullied, i.e, the Jeb Bushes and Marco Rubios of the world. Trump has his training in the prep school world, a far more brutal world than the public schools in which we riff-raff grew. Jeb was a prep school boy, but he was one of the bullied, tailor made for Trump, who dispatched him first, and then applied his skills to his other opponents. One by one he’s taken their measure, and taken them down.

I didn’t go to prep school, but I went to a college that was chock full of prep school grads. Generally speaking, they came in two flavors (generally speaking, there are always exceptions), so far as their approach to women was concerned. Bear in mind, prep schools then were sexually segregated. These guys had precious little opportunity to engage with women as people. So, there were the painfully shy guys who had a hard time interacting with women in any way (I even knew a guy who talked expansively about a girlfriend who turned out to be a figment of his imagination) or there were Lothario types who saw women as merely and only sexual objects. We public high school guys may have come from economically deprived backgrounds, but at least many of us were reasonably capable of more healthy interactions with the women who integrated our fair college during my junior and senior year. Not to say we didn’t have normal urges, but we could also interact with women as friends and equals.

I needn’t tell you in which of the two types of prep schoolers I would classify the Donald. One byproduct of his attitude toward women is that, while he is extremely capable of zeroing in on the weaknesses of his male competitors, he is flying blind when it comes to women. His first and almost only instinct is to go after their looks, because in his mind that’s all that matters about a woman. See his recent contretemps with Cruz about their respective wives. If that approach doesn’t work, he’s at a loss.

Before I go on, a bit of a diversion. There is ample evidence out there that Donald has his weak points as well. His competitors simply didn’t have his ability to discern them. About 25 years ago Spy Magazine called him a “short fingered vulgarian”, and he continues, to this very day, to send pictures of his hand (to disprove the charge) to the guy who coined the phrase. Despite the fact that Rubio crashed and burned trying to use the phrase against him (some folks just don’t have the personality to be a successful bully), the issue continues to haunt him, to the point where he goes to needless length to rebut it. So, my point, is that if you needle him in the right place, it gets to him. But I’m not suggesting that anyone needle him about his hands.

Recently, Elizabeth Warren let loose with a bunch of tweets branding him a loser and calling his business savvy into question. They were quite brilliant. His comeback has been, shall we say, rather ineffective. You see, he’s never been in a schoolyard with a girl, so he doesn’t have the slightest idea how to perceive whatever vulnerabilities they might have. My guess is that he’d be totally ineffectual if subjected to concentrated female scorn, particularly from a very smart female (or a bunch of them). I’m fairly sure all the preppies I knew would have been fairly helpless in the face of that onslaught, particularly if the females in question hit them in a sore spot. In other words, what Donald did so well with Jeb, they could do to Donald. I’m not suggesting that Hillary take up the gauntlet. What I am suggesting is that women such as Elizabeth Warren, Barbara Boxer, etc., engage in a coordinated and concentrated assault on the Donald. Before doing so, they might want to spend some time observing kids on a middle school playground or a prep school lunchroom. A little research by a qualified psychologist could no doubt ferret out more of Donald’s insecurities. This has to be done right, of course. No frontal attacks on his manhood, for instance, though indirect attacks might work find. As the wicked witch said, “these things must be done delicately”. My guess is he’d be helpless in the face of the onslaught. He’d quickly find that insulting their appearance wouldn’t work, and after that he’d be helpless.

The only problem with this theory is that Democrats never coordinate. Republicans always sing from the same page, even if their individual political futures are at risk. Democrats never do, even when it would enhance their chances of winning.

Schoolyard rules apply: Trump vindicated

The Republican campaign has now gone beyond penis comparison and is now in the wife comparison stage. I leave it to better minds than mine to determine if the debate is now less elevated or more elevated (if the word “elevated” can legitimately be applied). Whatever the level may be, we are still firmly in middle school/prep school milieu. In other words, we’re in Trump’s wheelhouse, because he’s never matured beyond that stage.

A recap is in order.

A Cruz affiliated PAC ran an ad in Utah featuring nude pictures of Trump’s wife, questioning whether she was the sort of First Lady the good Mormons of Utah would want in that exalted position. Cruz pleaded innocent, claiming that he had no control over his PAC, but the history of this campaign has pretty well proven that dodge to no longer provide remotely plausible deniability. Trump responded with a tweet, pointing out that his wife was far hotter than Cruz’s wife, proving, according to his lights, that his wife was a better woman than Cruz’s wife, hotness being, after all, the sixth grade standard. Trump proved his point with dueling pictures. Cruz responded by telling Trump to “leave my wife the hell alone”.

As a former sixth grader I award the laurels to Trump. His response is obvious, inevitable, and unanswerable:

>“He started it!”

Yet another reason to vote for Bernie

Clinton and the Republicans compete for the position of Israel’s lapdog:

At the annual AIPAC convention, the Democratic and Republican front-runners engaged in what might be called a “pander-off” as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tried to outdo the other in declaring their love and devotion to Israel.

Yet, what was perhaps most troubling about the two dueling speeches was the absence of any significant sympathy for the Palestinian people or any substantive criticism of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

By contrast, Sen. Bernie Sanders, who did not attend the AIPAC convention, delivered a foreign policy speech in Salt Lake City, Utah, that struck a more balanced tone and placed part of the blame for the Mideast problems on the policies of Netanyahu’s right-wing government.

However, in Washington before thousands of cheering attendees at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee convention on Monday, Clinton, Trump and two other Republican candidates, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, were in full pander mode.

via Consortium News

The strange thing is that there is ample evidence that AIPAC does not speak for the vast majority of American Jews, so one must ask, why have our elites ceded so much power to what is, in essence, the lobby for the State of Israel. It is a very strong tail wagging a very weak dog.

I guess there’s some irony in the fact that the only Jewish candidate in the race is the one making the most sense on these issues.

Anyway, I can understand the argument that one would vote for Hillary because Bernie can’t win, though I don’t agree with it. I can’t understand how anyone calling themselves a liberal or progressive could claim that she is in fact the better candidate.