A reader (I assume he’s a reader) passed along this story (Israel asks U.S. for arms, air corridor to attack Iran) from an Israeli Newspaper, Haaretz.com, the essence of which is that the Israel was seeking U.S. cooperation to clear the way for an attack on Iran, but that the U.S. refused, buying Israel off instead with more defensive weapons. The reader suggested that we might be in for a November or December surprise, based, I guess, on this paragraph:
At the beginning of the year, the Israeli leadership still considered it a reasonable possibility that Bush would decide to attack Iran before the end of his term.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in private discussions, even raised the possibility that the U.S. was considering an attack in the transition period between the election in November and the inauguration of the new president in January 2009.
The article implies that this possibility has vanished. Apparently, Bush wants to consolidate the victory in Iraq that only he and McCain can see. I suppose, as well, that it would have been difficult for even Bush to maintain the myth of Iraqi sovereignty were the U.S. to open Iraqi air space to allow the Israelis to attack the Iranian government with which the Iraqis have brotherly relations. It seems likely, as well, that an attack on Iran through Iraq would fan the violence in Iraq back to pre-surge levels. (For the record, there is still plenty of violence in Iraq).
For once it may be the case that Bush is doing the right thing, although probably much against his own will. This situation illustrates the way we have, in Iraq, been working at cross purposes to ourselves. Saddam was never really a threat to Israel, except when he was pushed to extremes. He acted as a counterweight to Iran, and it didn’t cost us anything. If and when we leave Iraq, we will leave a country that will, if the present leadership persists in power, rush into the arms of Iran. That wouldn’t really matter very much, if we could develop a mature and nuanced position toward Iran, but we seem incapable of doing that.
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