CT Blue

Juan Cole, who usually knows of what he speaks, says that Al Qaeda has been defeated:

It is a dangerous thing for an analyst to say, because obviously radical Muslim extremists may at some point set off some more bombs and then everyone will point fingers and say how wrong I was.

So let me be very clear that I do not mean that radical Muslim extremism has ceased to exist or that there will never be another bombing at their hands.

I mean the original al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda as a historical, concrete movement centered on Usama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, with the mujahideen who fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s at their core. Al-Qaeda, the 55th Brigade of the Army of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under the Taliban. That al-Qaeda. The 5,000 fighters and operatives or whatever number they amounted to.

That original al-Qaeda has been defeated.

Usamah Bin Laden has not released an original videotape since about four years ago. There was that disaster with the cgi black beard. There was the old footage spliced in by al-Sahab. But nothing new on videotape. I conclude that Bin Laden, if he is alive, is so injured or disfigured that his appearance on videotape would only discourage any followers he has left.

The entire article is a must read. Among other things, Cole asserts that an increased presence in Afghanistan, something that Obama has been pushing and Bush and McCain have now embraced, will be counterproductive. The Taliban, he says, are not interested in international terrorism, though they might, again, provide safe harbor to those who are.

Obama’s sabre rattling on Afghanistan is, in my opinion, the worst position he has taken. I can understand why he’s done it, but it will, if he is elected, come back to haunt him if he follows through.

So, according to Cole, despite ourselves we have “defeated” Al Qaeda”, though in fact Al Qaeda’s own weaknesses probably had a lot to do with its demise. But this is a victory that we’re not likely to hear much about. Like any inept parent, Bush/McCain etc. need a bogeyman to keep people frightened, so they will do what they’re told. If we declared victory it would be all the harder to justify the continued expense of the Iraq and Afghanistan adventures.