CT Blue

Rob Simmons is talking himself up as a challenger to Chris Dodd. Given the dismal state of the Republican Party in Connecticut he’s a logical choice. The idea that he could run as an ecomonic populist, which is the kind of stuff he’s spouting, strikes anyone with knowledge as absurd, but just remember, Joe Lieberman ultimately did win by running as the candidate of the low information voter. I’m not as sanguine as the various commenters at the Swing State Project, who are sure that Dodd would easily beat Simmons.

There is something eerily familiar about the prospect of a Simmons-Dodd matchup. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that in 2000 the only credible Democrat that Simmons could have beaten was Sam Gejdenson, the person against whom he had the luck to run. I thought Sam was a great Congressman, but the fact is that by 2000 he was a burnt out case, perceived as being distant from his district, and sort of going through the motions in that last campaign. Had he decided that 20 years was enough, and stepped aside, Simmons would have lost.

Dodd may be the Sam Gejdenson of 2010. He’s gotten soft and distant from the state. He’s vulnerable on the bank issue. He hasn’t helped himself by weaving and bobbing on the mortgage question. It seems hard to fathom that the economic issue might be one that the Republicans can capitalize on in 2010, but don’t be so sure.

In November of 2010 the voters will have had two years of relentless Republican criticism of everything the Democrats do to try to repair the wreckage. All of their complaints will be echoed relentlessly in the media. Consider, for instance, that in some corners Obama is being painted as a failure because he isn’t being “bi-partisan” enough, while Bush, who ran on the same promise and never even tried to keep it, was never judged by that yardstick. In two years we will still be in tough economic straits, in large part because it is politically impossible to get effective legislation past the Republicans. But that won’t matter, because they may very well be able to have it both ways. Life is never that bad when you own the media.

It may not, and probably won’t be, enough to get them into the majority. But it might be enough in some places to turn a race toward a Republican running against a Democratic friend of the bankers. If Dodd wants to keep his seat he will, hopefully, recognize that he is really threatened, and start cultivating the home folks. The cap on executive compensation was a good start. If he doesn’t have the fire in his belly to act like this is his first campaign, then he should consider stepping aside, and let Blumenthal crush Simmons.