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Let the Math be With You

Monday, August 19, 2019

Gee, it turns out that appealing to Republicans is not the sure road to successthat establishment Democrats and some Democratic presidential candidates (hint: one rhymes with Ride Em) think it is.

Rachel Bitecofer’s prediction on the 2018 “blue wave” was “numerically close to perfect,” writes Paul Rosenberg in an interview for Salon. The assistant director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia estimated Democrats would gain 42 seats. The do-over election in NC-9 scheduled for September 10 could make Democrats’ final count 41. On August 6, Bitcofer released a preliminary list of 18 House seats that with the right campaigns Democrats could pick up in 2020.

Her explanation for the size of the tsunami contrasts with conventional wisdom still on display among Democrats in Washington.

Bitecofer tells Salon, “I don’t know why Nancy Pelosi, the DCCC or many of these moderate members are convinced that moderate Republicans crossed over and voted for them. I have the data for some of these districts and the data tells a very different, very clear story: If Republicans voted in huge numbers, they voted for Republicans.”

And Republicans did turn out in large numbers. Turnout among Democrats and independents was simply higher. What made them turn out was not health care, but negative partisanship. It was Trump, Inc. By Bitecofer’s reckoning, not understanding the effects of that on turnout may have cost Democrats an additional half dozen seats they may have successfully contested in 2018.

Who would have thunk it? 

According to Biden and the establishment Democrats, the way to turn out those folks is by selling yourself as Republican-lite. That ought to do the trick.

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No one wants what Democratic “moderates” are selling

Friday, August 16, 2019

Arriving in yesterday’s mail, a fundraising letter from Steve Bullock, the envelope emblazoned with this stirring message:

I’m the only candidate who’s won a Trump state.
I can beat Trump all across America!

If you’ve heard of Bullock at all, you no doubt know of him as the man who should be running for the Senate from Montana instead of wasting his time and supporters’ (if there are any) money running for President. We can only hope that he follows Hickenlooper into the sunset.

Bullock is one of many Democratic candidates running as Republicans-lite; one of those Warren so effectively put down when she remarked that she couldn’t quite understand why anyone would run for president talking about what they can’t do.

The declaration on Bullock’s envelope got me thinking.

Let’s step back a bit and remind ourselves of the Republican formula for success. The Republicans agendais simple: it is to further the interests of the plutocrats. Every day, as Trump distracts, they advance this agenda. For instance,we learned yesterday that they are going to endanger us all by allowing sleepy truck drivers on the road. Good for trucking companies (who cares if a couple of truckers get killed), but not so good for the rest of us. Climate change? It can be safely ignored, as the plutocrats want, so long as you keep the rubes scared of the [insert racial, ethnic or religious slur here].

The actual Republican agenda is deeply unpopular, whereas even the “radical” ideas (Medicare for all! Just like in every other advanced nation!) of progressive Democrats poll well. How do the Republicans win? By distracting, with the help of Fox News, from their real agenda by playing to, and inciting, racism and other base and despicable forms of bigotry.There is no disputing this fact, it is out in plain sight. Only Washington based pundits are unable to see it.

So, in the face of this, what do Democratic “moderates” propose? They propose to eschew the racism that sells and embrace a lite version of the deeply unpopular Republican plutocratic agenda that the Republicans take such pains to hide. Not for them popular “socialistic” programs like Medicare for All or free college (why isn’t free high school socialism?). Better to assure those corporate donors that they have nothing to fear and in fact much to anticipate from a government administered by Mr. or Ms. Moderate Democrat.And by all means, continue to ignore climate change, while not going full denier when asked. Comfort the comfortable, while afflicting the afflicted slightly less than the Republicans.

To the extent Trump voters can be converted, this is not the message that will get them. If it were, the Republicans would not have had to go full on racist to begin with. What it can do is turn off Democratic leaning voters, who are looking for a government that will do something about wealth inequality, climate change, and the rise of the radical right. It is also worth remembering that Trump ran to the left of his opponents on economic issues. He was going to protect social security and give us great medical coverage, much better than Obamacare. Of course he was lying, but he was telling his deplorables what they wanted to hear.

None of the Bullocks have taken off. One can argue that Biden is of that ilk, and he is, and he is leading the pack. (Well, he was leading the pack) But he is the choice of the folks whose first priority is beating Trump, who have, at least for the moment, been successfully propagandized into believing a real Democrat can’t win. It looks more and more like the more people see of him the less they want him, though they still haven’t quite ditched the Beltway wisdom with which they’ve been vaccinated.

Properly packaged, our message sells. We have some good salespeople; what we need is for the establishment party to back them up and we need for the party to push back against the both siderism that compels the media to treat ideas like Medicare for All as if they were what Republicans claim they are. 

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Hey Joe! Listen to Harry

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

The last time I checked (actually, I never checked, but I’m pretty sure I’m right) Harry Reid is even older than Joe Biden, yet Harry seems fully capable, even in his senescence, of figuring out which way the wind is blowing. He has an Op-Ed piecein this morning’s New York Times advocating for an end to the filibuster. 

One thing Harry doesn’t point out, though it is there by implication, is that the filibuster has only been an effective tool for the Republicans, because for one reason or another, Democrats have failed to use it when they are in the minority. All the Republicans need do is lament about how unfair it is that their latest attempt to do damage is not at least getting a vote, and the Democrats, pressured by a compliant media (to which we must also add the Fox propaganda media), fold. When Bush was president, there was, in principle, a filibuster rule that the Democrats could have used to block judicial appointments, but for one reason or another they let Roberts and Alito get through with scarcely a whimper, while when Obama was president the Republicans blocked almost every judicial appointment until Reid abolished the filibuster for judicial appointments (excepting the Supreme Court). That largely didn’t work because Leahy, being the good accomodating Senator that he was, maintained the blue slip rule, that allowed any Senator to block a nominee from his or her state or circuitwhich Grassley promptly ditchedafter the Republicans took back the White House. That resulted in the appointment, by Obama, of some embarrassingly conservative judges.

Joe Biden, who is physically present in the 21st century, but whose mind dwells in the eighth decade of the 20th, feels it would be a dangerous move to end the filibuster. If a miracle occurs, and the Democrats manage to overcome their own ineptitude and the both-siderism of the media to take not only the White House, but the Senate, they will gain nothing if the filibuster is maintained. The Republicans will surge back to power by pointing to the fact that the Democrats have once again, (see, e.g. Obama kissing Susan Collin’s ass to get a weak stimulus package) failed to effectively address the horrible situation they inherited from the Republicans. 

As a side note, part of the both-siderism I’m talking about is the media’s interest in Joe Biden’s gaffes, which they are beginning to pound away at. Those gaffes will not be forgotten, whereas Trump’s racist statements, and those revealing the extent of his mental illness, will be reported once and then consigned to the memory hole. This is not new. See, e.g., the press coverage of Al Gore, in 2000, and also see, e.g., Hillary’s emails as opposed to Trump’s blatant criminality, in 2016. This is all of a piece with the treatment the Democrats received when they even breathed the possibility that they would filibuster something major. Immediately we learned how they were endangering the democratic process. With Republicans—well, that’s what they do, so where’s the news?

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Utterly delusional

Friday, August 9, 2019

We can all agree that the present occupant of the White House is seriously mentally ill, and that he suffers from a mental illness that puts the rest of us at risk.

But what does it say about the state of our nation that his possible (we can only hope) successor is also mentally ill, though in a way that would normally be fairly harmless.

There is an old saw that insanity can be defined as doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Another old saw warns us that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. There is truth in both of these saws.

Are you listening, Joe?

Joe Biden, touring Iowa, told reporters, in so many words, that his plan is to have an ineffectual, failed presidency. Or, as Biden put it more pithily, “Ending the filibuster is a very dangerous move.”

…

Biden has clung to this conviction in the face of overwhelming evidence, including eight years in an administration in which opposing party senators followed a strategy of scorched-earth opposition and were rewarded for it.

The prospective concern with Biden is not that he would somehow revive the old Dixiecrat coalition, but that he is nostalgically trapped in the bygone world of his youth, unable to grasp the tectonic changes that have reshaped American politics. Biden’s nostalgia for the villains of his political youth, and his belief that the institution can be restored to its bygone manners, is a symptom of a more profound disorder that you might call “Senatitis.”

If Biden wins, which I don’t think he can do, he will deliver 4 years of nothing. By 2022 whatever majority we may have in either House will be swept away, and in 2024 he’ll be replaced by someone possibly worse than Trump. I know that sounds impossible, but who would have thought they could come up with someone worse that W, who was, after all, the worst in history when he left office. In his own way, Biden is a clear and present danger to the survival of the Republic.

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The Gray Lady Retreats and the Democrats attack

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

This morning a contrast between the Globe and the Times gave me cause to rant. Each ran the same article by Times reporters Michael Crowley and (ugh) Maggie Haberman on their front page. For each it was the headline story. It was about Trump’s pro forma speech about the Trump inspired massacre in El Paso and the so far unattributed massacre in Toledo. At least Toledo is where the “I don’t really care, do you?”, Trump put the second massacre, though some people say it was in Dayton.

Anyway, back to the rant.

Here’s the NYT’s headline: “Trump urges unity vs. racism”.

That set me off ranting even before I saw the Globe’s headline for the very same piece: “Trump urges action,skips details” followed by a prominent sub-headline (is that what they’re called?): “He condemns racism,after months of incendiary remarks; Democrats demand gun laws”.

It is beyond doubt that the El Paso shooter was inspired in part by Trump’s racist rhetoric, given the fact that he parroted many of Trump’s talking points. The Times headline implies that Trump was a) doing the right thing, and b) sincere when he attempted to read a series of platitudes from a teleprompter.

I note, by the way, that the Times headline provoked a tweet from ctblogger, of which I heartily approve.

 

It is yet another sign of hope that the Times actually changed the headline, in response, at least in part, to criticism from a host of Democratic presidential candidates and other Democrats. Can it be that the Democrats are learning how to play the ref the way the Republicans have for years?

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Are the Dems getting a collective spine?

Monday, August 5, 2019

It’s been said that it’s an ill wind that blows nobody good. We’ve been subjected to a lot of ill winds lately, particularly in the last couple of days during which there have been two massacres, at least one of which appears to have been inspired by the monster currently desecrating 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

But perhaps this wind will blow some good, in that these events may be a turning point, not only in the fight against the NRA, but in the continuing and seemingly permanent inability of the Democratic Party to take control of the narrative, not just on guns, but on everything.

It has been obvious for some time that many of these killers were inspired by Trump and those he condones. Previously, the Democrats, if they have made that connection, have done so only tepidly. It would be impolite, after all, to do otherwise, and they wouldn’t want to be criticized by the folks on Fox or the both siderist pundits. Attacks of that sort are the sole preserve of Republicans, from whom it is expected, and therefore tolerated, despite the fact that their attacks are usually—-sorry, always—- mendacious.

Perhaps the El Paso killer (we don’t know about the Dayton guy yet, except I believe we know he’s white-of course) pushed the Democrats over the edge. We can only hope they’ll stay there. Beto O’Rourke has been putting responsibility for these terrorist acts just where it belongs, (see here, hereand here) as has Julian Castroand even the DINO Tim Ryan. My impression is that they’re not the only presidential candidates doing so. This is a refrain in which all the candidates should join, along with the entire congressional delegation. It’s time we sang in unison about something, and nothing is truer than the claim that Trump has been encouraging and validating this type of behavior.

It needs hardly be said that the dedicated gun nuts do not vote for Democrats. It therefore stands to reason that we should not try to appease them. It will do no good. Better to appeal to the far more numerous segment of the population that would rather not be shot if they venture out in public. Yes, they are not single issue voters like the gun nuts, but an appeal to sanity on multiple fronts cannot help but have a cumulative effect.

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Chaos at the DCCC

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

I get calls from the DCCC on almost a weekly basis. Like a lot of other scam callers, they use phone numbers that are allegedly from towns near me. The last one was (supposedly) from Canton, I believe. I never give, because since the days of Rahm Emmanuel and even before that, they have favored right wing DINOs over actual Democrats. If anything, it’s gotten worse under Cheri Bustos. Wander around the posts over at Down with Tyrannyfor details.

Seems like the DCCC is in disarray, and there’s always the slim hope that Pelosi will step in and hand it over to some actual Democrats (don’t hold your breath):

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) saw a mass departure of senior staff late Monday amid outcry over the lack of diversity within the committee’s top ranks under Chairwoman Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.).

Communications director Jared Smith, political director Molly Ritner, deputy executive director Nick Pancrazio, top communications aide Melissa Miller and the committee’s diversity director Van Ornelas all resigned by Monday evening.

The exits come on the heels of the resignation of the committee’s executive director, Allison Jaslow, which she announced at an all-staff meeting earlier on Monday.

Jaslow’s exit followed complaints about the lack of diversity in the senior management positions from Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Filemon Vela (D-Texas).

Gonzalez and Vela said in a statement Sunday that the committee was in “complete chaos.”

Bustos returned to Washington on Monday despite the August recess to deal with the growing outcry from black and Latino lawmakers over diversity.

The episode underscores the level of discontent with Bustos throughout the House Democratic ranks. According to one House Democrat, Bustos made promises to lawmakers of all stripes in her bid to take the reins from Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) and those competing pledges are a major reason for the fallout she and the committee are experiencing only seven months after she took over as chair.

Under Bustos and her predecessors the DCCC has taken sides against Democrats in favor of DINOs in primaries involving open seats or seats held by Democrats. Recently the DCCC threatened to steer business away from any consultant who worked for a primary challenger, a move meant especially to protect uber DINO Dan Lipinski from a challenge by Marie Newman, who almost beat him two years ago. Lipinski, who inherited his seat from his equally reprehensible father, represents a deep blue Chicago district but votes deep red.

I guess it’s good that some people at the DCCC think there should be more diversity there. Personally, I think the primary focus should be on getting more Democrats.

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An easy prediction

Sunday, July 28, 2019

There is a strain of thought among so-called never-Trumpers that there is a thing called Trumpism, and there is the Republican Party, and that they are two separate and distinct entities. The thinking, apparently, is that deep in the soul of the Republican Party there is a core of people who are not racists, not religious bigots, not fascists. 

Former Massachusetts governor William Weld is now putting that notion to the acid test. A few days ago he addressed the NAACP convention and said this:

Donald Trump is a raging racist, Okay? He’s a complete and thoroughgoing racist. And he made that choice, a choice a long time ago, when he was engaged in the housing business in New York with his father,” Weld said, speaking at the NAACP convention in Detroit on Wednesday.

He added: “The national Republican Party, has a choice. And a lot of them like to think that it’s a political choice. But it’s not a political choice. It’s a moral choice.”

Weld is casting his campaign as the last chance for the Republican Party to turn away from the racism (I don’t know if he is concerned about the drift toward fascism) about which Trump is so open. Those of us who’ve been watching know that the dog whistles began blowing in 1968, but let’s put that aside for the moment.

It strikes me that Weld is right. He’s offering Republican voters a choice between “Trumpism” and the mythical Republicanism of fantasists like David Brooks.

I would hazard a prediction that Weld won’t get more than 10% of the vote in any state, even Massachusetts, even if Trump’s crimes have been fully exposed by the time the primaries roll around. If he gets that high, it will be because most Republicans won’t bother to vote in the primaries simply because there’s no real threat to Trump, so his theoretical 10% would actually represent perhaps 5% of Republicans.

So, that brings us to the ultimate question. Will the punditry finally acknowledge that there is no distinction between Trumpism and Republicanism, once Weld finishes the primary season without a single convention delegate? Or will the mythical Republican Party live on in the mindless drivel penned by people like Brooks?

I really wish there were someone stupid enough to bet that the punditry will change its tune. I could make a lot of money betting against that person.

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Back from the shadows again

Friday, July 26, 2019

It’s been a while since I’ve posted, as I am on vacation in the wilds of Vermont, going to the same places we go every year. Once again, we went to the Hapgood “Eatery” in Peru (that would be the Peru in Vermont, just down the road from the Bromley ski area), and once again, Paul McCartney failed to show his face. He was there years ago. I know that because his picture is on the wall, and the menu notes that he had the vegetarian pizza. But apparently he avoids the place when we’re there.

Enough carping. I have barely been following the news, but I know it has followed a predictable course. Robert Mueller has testified, and he confirmed that Trump is a crook, but much of the media just yawns, because it’s old news. It was all in his report, which is quite true, except when the report came out, they didn’t bother to read it and report its substance. Yada, yada.

Anyway, enough has been written about Mueller, and it does look like the Democrats are looking to conduct a well timed impeachment inquiry, to give the impeachment vote maximum political impact, while rendering the Senate’s verdict an after-election afterthought.

At least we can hope that’s the thinking.

A few random observations.

While we are distracted by the Trump’s criminality, our corporate overlords continue to reap the benefits of that criminality. The now almost totally corrupt Justice Department has okayed the T-Mobile/Sprint merger, the result, in part, of T-Mobile’s excessive patronage of Trump’s hotels. The U.S. already has pretty horrible cellular service, in comparison to other developed countries, but we can now look forward to even worse service at even higher prices. This, of course, has taken place largely under the radar.

On to Moscow Mitch. It is a fact, though not widely bandied about, that McConnell has been the beneficiary of Moscow’s largess, and has done good service for his puppet masters, such as when he prevented Obama from warning of Russian attempts to tamper with our election. He has, in the last few days, prevented the Senate from taking up elections that might prevent a replay of 2016, something Mueller warned about in his testimony. This is only to be expected, of course. So far as Republicans are concerned, all’s fair if it helps them get elected. The preservation of a republican form of government (when it has a small “r” it bears no relationship to the capitalized version) is not a priority. In fact, the destruction of republican forms is a feature, not a bug. This morning, as I understand from Crooks & Liars, Joe Scarborough spent 15 minutes excoriating “Moscow Mitch”. It hardly needs saying that the Democrats will not pick up on this, though they should. Repetition is key, something the Democrats never seem to get. If they keep repeating that phrase, particularly since it is well grounded in fact, they might just be able to at least get him to back down on letting the Russians steal the next election, and they would, in any event, plant something in the public mind that would spill over from the already loathed Mitch to his Republican enablers. But alas, that is not to be. This too will be forgotten in a few days, because the Democrats will allow it to be.

Time to return to vacation mode.

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Fake News is a real thing sometimes

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

This has happened before, and it supports something the genius has been saying: there’s a lot of fake news out there. The fact is that most of the fake news supports him.

Yesterday CNN had a panel of Texas female Republican. They were presented as representative of 2016 Texas females who voted for Trump. Nothing he has done, they all said, has made them change their minds, and of course its the Democratic congresswomen that are the real racists.

What was not disclosed?

Although CNN didn’t disclose this, Google tells me that Dena Miller is the national director of Trumpettes for America, a network of socialites who work to gin up support for Trump in the media. Well done, Dena!

Gina O’Briant, Geni Manning, and Kathleen Lieberman are members of the Texas Women for Trump Coalition. So they’re not your typical housewives, either.

Republican Cami Dean ran for Congress (TX-3) in 2014.

These are not ordinary Republican women. These are people who are deeply invested in Republican activism, and their appearance here tells me they can’t come up with enough mainstream Republicans for this focus group. They’re only talking to the true believers — which makes Trump look more popular than he really is.

I take issue with that last quoted paragraph, in that I don’t believe for a second that CNN went looking for a representative sampling of Republican women. It looked for what it got, women who would say that nothing Trump does could ever shake their faith. Reminds me of the fact that you’re not allowed to eat in a diner in the Midwest unless you still support the genius.

This is a common trope for our media. Consider this article from the Washington Post, which was reprinted in this morning’s New London Day (though I couldn’t find a workable link there). The gist of it is that Trump’s racist rant will only help him politically. After all, he’s firing up the base.

Which leads me to a question I’ve ranted more than once to my long suffering spouse. How come it’s always good for the Republicans when they play to their base, but if the Democrats play to theirs it will always hurt them?

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