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Fuzzy math, indeed

Over at fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver has kicked up a bit of controversy over polling done by Strategic Visions. He makes a compelling case here that there is something very suspect about their results. He makes an even more compelling case here that at least one of their polls has results that are patently absurd. In the first instance, he makes his point mathematically, in the second by I guess what you would call induction, or is it deduction?

Meanwhile one of his co-bloggers has piled on a different polling company, Prince & Associates, a company that polls rich people.

The patently absurd poll struck me as fairly obviously made up. It purports to show that Oklahoma high school students are abysmally ignorant about basic civics questions (e.g., what is the basic law of the land; what are the names of the two major political parties). While I’m quite willing to believe many Oklahomans are dumb (after all, both their senators are very dumb), I, like Nate, and unwilling to believe that they are that dumb (only 23% know George Washington was the first president?) and that (according to the poll) none of them are well informed enough to answer eight out of 10 basic questions.

The larger point is that these polls are often taken for legal tender, no questions asked, by those that purvey the results to the public. In the case of Prince & Associates, the Wall Street Journal uses their results. Strategic Visions spreads its product all over the country, like manure on a farmer’s field. It’s hard to fault the press for assuming that these people are not just making things up, but these articles show that in order to do its job, the press must not just pass on the numbers, but must have some sort of peer review process to make sure that bogus numbers don’t enter the discourse. At the very least, any pollster that refuses to be transparent regarding its polling methodologies and raw data should be ignored.

These folks (and, of course, they appear to have a rightward slant) are in one sense merely misrepresenting reality. In another sense, they are shaping it. If, for instance, George Will likes what Strategic Visions has to say, he will repeat it, and it will become conventional wisdom, against which no mere fact can stand.


Norwich girl makes not so good

We don’t seem to make piracy pay. I’m sure I don’t know why, but we don’t.
Gilbert and Sullivan, The Pirates of Penzance
Norwich has some dubious distinctions. It is the hometown of Benedict Arnold, who took the Norwich-New London rivalry to what some would consider an extreme, by burning New London. It now watches with fascination as one of its native daughters distinguishes herself as one of the most bizarre criminals of all time.

One Heather Brown has (allegedly) committed six bank robberies in six days. In the old days, this would have been impossible, but banks are now open on Saturdays, and I suppose even on Sunday, so if she is making an assault on the Guinness Book of World Records, the sky’s the limit.

The article to which I’ve linked is much abbreviated from the more richly detailed print edition, in which we learn that this particular Bonnie lost her Clyde early on, when they decided to adopt a rather novel getaway method:

Westerly police believe Brown is responsible for robbing a Washington Trust branch on Franklin Street on Tuesday, where she and a man entered the bank and said they had explosive devices. The pair fled in a tax, but only the male suspect, Ronald Hayes, was inside the cab when Stonington police stopped it.

That’s right, a taxi, and the taxi driver was not in on the plot. Still, give Heather credit for making her escape, enabling her to rob another day, and apparently pick up another Clyde, who helped her out on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, it looks to me like she’s barely turning a profit on her endeavors. Like the Pirates of Penzance, she can’t seem to make criminality pay. She may be looking for a record for consecutive days committing a bank heist, but she’s hardly looking for a record in the loot department. She’s not particularly greedy at all, in fact.

Monday, she robbed a Citizens Bank and asked for only $600.00. By Friday, she had upped her demand to $1,000.00. In the meantime the cops had already seized a van that “they believe is connected to the string of robberies”. Advantage cops, at least money wise. At her present rate, it seems to me she’ll be robbing her way into bankruptcy court. I mean, if you’re going to rob a bank, why ask for a paltry $600? With all that bailout money floating around, any bank worth its salt could easily come up with far more than that.

I blame it on the Norwich Educational system. Even here in Groton our school kids are aware that there is money in banks, and that these days $600 is only just enough for a couple of weeks groceries. Done right, one decent bank job ought to net more than Heather has managed to get in a week. As it is, she’s working hard, doesn’t even get a day off, and has lost her minivan.

C’mon Heather, you can do better. When they make the movie, do you want it to be an action flick, or an updated version of Take the Money and Run?


Beatle Remasters

So, I was at Best Buy helping a neighbor buy a computer (a PC, mores the pity) and I saw the new Beatles remastered CDs. At first I was a bit shocked at the price, $30.00 per, but then realized that was for the records with the toy inside. If you just go for the CD, it’s $13.99, outrageous, but that’s life in the 21st century.

Anyway, I bought three, With the Beatles, Sgt. Pepper (that’s practically obligatory) and Abbey Road. I’m now listening to With the Beatles, and I must say the remastered stereo sounds suspiciously like the silly stereo from the old days. If memory serves, Rubber Soul was the first Beatles record in stereo. The voices were on one side, and the instruments were mostly on the other. With the Beatles sounds pretty much like that. It’s better than the old mono, but it doesn’t really sound realistic.

Caveat: My perspective might be slightly skewed by the fact that I just returned from a wine tasting party (for charity, of course). I doubt it though. There’s Paul, John and George over there to the right, and all the instruments on the left. Still, the music is great. Right now, I’m listening to them sing Smokey Robinson’s You Really Got a Hold on Me. Great stuff.

We really did have the best music ever.


Amazing

At Political Wire they write that this video suggests that the White House sent a cardboard cut-out to the UN. Alternatively, you can argue that if something works, you keep doing it. Personally, as someone who cracks camera lenses, I’m impressed that Obama can do this.


Legalized bribery

Isn’t America a great country? Who needs an income when you can own your own Leadership PAC.

And we’re worrying about whether Chris Dodd got a sweetheart mortgage?

It looks, by the way, that Chris has backed away from the bi-partisan Leadership PAC game.


Some good news

The forces of reason are proposing a

ballot initiative

that will, one would hope, eventually bring an end to ballot initiatives in California:

In the coming weeks, the coalition Repair California will begin the official process of calling a state constitutional convention, submitting ballot-initiative language to Attorney General Jerry Brown’s office. Repair California proposes to restructure government through a state constitutional convention.

California desperately needs repair.
These are dangerous times in which to call for a Constitutional Convention. One shudders to think of the coming attempts by the right wing there to introduce intolerance into the warp and woof of the new document. But that, unfortunately, is a risk they have to take, since as a result of that very right wing the state has become a disaster zone, as John Grubb, of Repair California states:

California has become the laughingstock of the nation and, to some extent, the world, because of how dysfunctional our government is. But it’s not a laughing matter for the people who live here, and we, in a couple of short decades, descended from having the best education system in the country to having one of the worst. We have the worst traffic in the country. We have a water crisis, a prison crisis, a budget crisis. Pretty much everywhere you look at state government, we have a crisis. And so it’s time for a big fix. And it’s time to fix the system itself. And the way to do that is through a constitutional convention.

As the article points out, it is not hard to fix the moment at which the crisis was conceived.

California’s governance problems, however, reach back decades; ever since 1978, Proposition 13 has capped property taxes. The fiscal situation is made even more dysfunctional by the requirement that two-thirds of the state Legislature approve any budget, giving the Republican minority disproportionate power.

In a word, California got fucked by the right wing in 1978 (and several more times in subsequent years) and the offspring of that union has turned out to be a monster.

This movement appears to have a reasonably good chance to succeed, although it will be opposed by the usual right wing suspects. Grover Norquist famously said that After all, California has come the closest in the country (excluding some Southern states, which don’t count) to draining down Grover Norquist’s bathtub, and they will certainly not want to give up when the goal of total destruction of the state is so close. But societies sometimes pull themselves from the brink, and we can only hope that California does so.

It’s a given that the new constitution, to succeed, must abolish the current system of referenda and initiative, which have made the state ungovernable. What will be interesting is whether California will take this opportunity to redefine what should be considered basic human rights in the 21st century. A lot as changed since 1789. Will California take this opportunity to explicitly protect privacy rights, for instance. We’ll see.


Friday Night Music

I am ashamed to admit that I thought of this song because of Tom Delay. I saw some footage of him making a fool of himself on a TV dance show, which he was doing to this tune.

This song is arguably the greatest song by any one hit wonder. At least I think the Troggs were one hit wonders. I dimly recall that they might have had a follow up minor record, but really this was it.

Imagine my surprise to find that they are still alive, kicking and performing, with this 2005 version being the only live version I could find on youtube. I’ve added a version from the 60s, which probably qualifies as a proto-music video.

Wild Thing (2005)

Wild Thing (1960s)


Last word on Acorn and the decline of reason

For a variety of reasons I’ve had occasion recently to write a lot about the Acorn situation, both here and in a letter I recently wrote to the Day, though I really think the whole thing is sort of trivial and another right wing tempest in a teapot. Still, the recent “exposé” raise some interesting questions about our ability to carry on a rational national conversation. We have three news networks, each of which has plenty of time to actually probe below the surface of things, but that’s really a rare occurrence. This story has been covered as if it really establishes something important about Acorn, when a bit of casual reflection would convince any reasonable person that it doesn’t. Unfortunately, it’s the adjective before the word “person” in the previous sentence that causes all the trouble.

There’s a good discussion here, at a blog called Anonymous Liberal:

I suppose that’s to be expected when the storyline is driven by footage of people saying very questionable things. Just play the video and move on. But there’s something very problematic about how all this went down. Consider for a moment the premise of these “stings.” O’Keefe and Giles, who look like they just walked out of a Young Republicans chapter meeting, walk into various ACORN offices dressed up as a pimp and prostitute (or at least as they imagine such people might look). They then ask a bunch of totally off-the-wall questions to unsuspecting (or in some cases suspecting) low-level ACORN employees and record the responses. As Jack Schafer correctly notes in his otherwise far-too-credulous piece at Slate, this is not a sting; it’s the equivalent of a Sasha Baron Cohen sketch.

What O’Keefe and Giles are doing isn’t quite entrapment, but it isn’t remotely the equivalent of a sting either, unless you assume that ACORN employees are routinely confronted with fake-looking pimp and prostitute duos who come into the office asking for advice on how to set up a prostitution business. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that real pimps and prostitutes don’t usually wander into the offices of community services organizations and explicitly ask for help in setting up their illegal businesses. It’s a safe bet that none of the employees filmed surreptitiously in these videos have ever encountered a situation like this before. So all these videos really show are people’s instant reactions to a situation far removed from their everyday experience and training.

That’s why the comparison to Sasha Baron Cohen is so apt. When confronted by very unusual behavior or unusual situations, people have a tendency to be agreeable and to play along. Most people don’t like confrontation and will instinctively go to great lengths to avoid it. If you doubt this, go watch Borat orBruno or any episode of the Ali G Show. It is this same human tendency that serves as the basis for all of Cohen’s comedy. He specializes in getting people (often famous people) to say things that they would not normally say.

The people caught in these videos were not engaged in deliberative activity, they were merely reacting to unusual provocation. The real test of their judgment was not what they said on the fly but what they did afterward, when the filmmakers had left the premises and they finally had a moment to process the encounter. Unfortunately, that moment is not on the tapes. We do know, however, that at least one of the employees captured on the video reported the duo to the police after they left the office (he was fired anyway). In another instance, the two were actually asked to leave and a police report was filed. Others undoubtedly concluded that it was a prank, either during the encounter or after having the chance to think about it for a while, and therefore shrugged it off and took no further action.

The whole post bears reading. The situation is really illustrative of the way in which we conduct our national discourse these days. Everything is surface. The whole story doesn’t really smell right, but that doesn’t matter- we merely disregard the smell, because then we don’t have to get into that nuance stuff. Better to assume the worst, defund the agency for the snap misjudgments of a few (while continuing to shovel billions toward the rechristened Blackwater, which quite deliberately engages in criminal activity) and move on. There’s every possibility that there are plenty of Democrats that know better, but they lack the spine to stand up to the right (the vote was taken with no hearings; the facts were deemed irrelevant), so Beck gets another scalp, a few hapless lives are destroyed and we all move on.

The Acorn thing is a minor matter, but it is not atypical of the way we deal with issues in this country. Sooner or later, probably sooner, our inability to deal honestly with the issues that face us will do us in. At the moment we have one party that traffics in lies, and another that traffics in cowardice, leaving truth and reason bruised, beaten and cowering in the corner. We’re seeing it in the health care debate. As Paul Krugman pointed out this morning, we are about to see it on the global warming issue. The Republicans may be able to persuade the gullible that there is no problem, or as Krugman predicts they will argue, that addressing it would destroy our way of life. (When you think about it, they’ve made both of those arguments about the Health Care issue) But whatever delusion we prefer to adopt will not change the reality, which will get us in the end.

This is a terribly asymmetric situation. The lying, the misrepresentations, the scaremongering and the racism are coming from one side only. Democrats might not always be right about everything, and there’s no one that can deny that some of them see the world through lobbyist colored glasses, but they do tend to stick to the issues. Perversely, and ominously, that leaves them at a terrible disadvantage vis a vis the liars, since lies make good copy, proving again that Mark Twain was right- that a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes. In the fullness of time things like the Acorn incident get put into perspective, but by then it doesn’t matter, because memories are short and the damage has been done.

This country, it should be remembered, was founded by men (women were encouraged not to apply) who believed above all (including above God) in reason. Our constitution is based on the implicit understanding that it would work only if people act reasonably. The Senate rules were written by Thomas Jefferson, who assumed that the privilege of unlimited debate would not be unreasonably misused. There are a lot of things the founders could not have predicted, but they could have predicted that the death of reason would spell the death of their system. Indeed, they expected that it would break down at some point. They were wise enough to know that nothing lasts forever. The situation we face at present would surely depress, but not surprise them.


The Big Dog Writes to Me

And a lot of other folks of course. The email found its way to my inbox this morning. Here’s the gist:

That’s why we need your help. Giving to the DSCC will allow us to recruit great candidates, build winning campaigns and make sure President Obama has the votes he needs to enact the policies that will make a real difference in the lives of all Americans. And if you give by Sept. 30, every dollar you give will be matched.

He doesn’t say who’ll do the matching. Maybe Health Care industry lobbyists.

Now, this is not a knock on Bill. But if there is any organization in the world that I am less inclined to support at the moment, it’s the DSCC. We have 59 senators. We’ll have 60 in a few days. We will be no closer to controlling the Senate than we were when the Republicans were in charge. How many do we have to elect? Exactly what has the Senate done recently to help Obama pass his policies. Seems to me the Democrats in the Senate are far more willing to oppose this president than they ever were to oppose Bush.

And when we, those who care about progressive (dare I use the “L” word?) policies, fund the campaigns that produce these new Senators, the first thing they do to establish their bona fides in the Village is to demonstrate that they don’t listen to a damn thing we say. Even Obama, who benefitted immensely from the blogosphere, recently went out of his way to paint all blogs as irresponsible purveyors of misinformation.

Why should I contribute to elect another Max Baucus, or Blanche Lincoln? They neither walk the walk NOR talk the talk. At least the Republicans walk the right wing walk, as ataxic as the resultant gait may be. All we’re asking for is a little bit of rationality, what we get is senators like Mary Landrieu opposing the public option because it might hurt the insurance companies.


Equal justice under the law

A Republican/conservative activist illegally films an idiot at Acorn giving absurd tax advice. Acorn loses its federal funding, the conservative is hailed on Fox, and no one suggests that the heavy hand of the law should reach down to punish the only real illegality uncovered-the filming. Another conservative illegally tapes a phone conversation among a group of people at the National Education Association. There is no outcry against the illegal taper.

Return with me now to the thrilling days of yesteryear, when John Boehner and other Republican thugs were illegally, with apparently no malice aforethought, taped by a California couple using a store bought scanner. They handed the tape over to Representative James McDermott. The contents of the tape were damning, but were those contents the story? Indeed no. McDermott’s alleged wrongdoing was the story. The Florida couple were criminally charged by the United States Justice Department and paid a fine. Boehner sued McDermott for his heinous offense. The history of that litigation,and the smell of Republican judges cooking the books, isn’t pretty.

What’s that you’re not hearing? Why it’s the sound of John Boehner not condemning the right wing for engaging in precisely the sort of activities for which he sued McDermott.