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RFJ Jr. drops out

Friday, August 23, 2024

This is a bit of a follow up to my post from a week ago, in which I made the not terribly difficult prediction that RFK Jr. would drop out and Trump would promise him a role in his administration.

It’s not good news for the Harris campaign, but I’m going to look on the bright side and suggest it’s not the great news that the Trumpers will make of it.

Let’s reflect a bit. Who were the RFK voters? At the very first, when he was really an unknown quantity, some of his backers may have been Democrats or Democrat leaning voters who wanted Biden to step aside. He is, after all, Bobby Kennedy’s son. Once those folks learned that he was in fact a total nutcase, most of them deserted him, and as the polls have shown, he has drawn from Trump.

So think about this. Why were those people ready to vote for someone other than Trump? There’s a host of possible reasons. They may think it’s not a good idea to put a criminal in the White House. They may think it’s not a good thing to try to overthrow the government. I’ll stop the list there as there are almost an infinite number of reasons why one would not want to vote for Trump, even if one were inclined to vote for a “conservative”.

So, now these folks have to make a decision. Do they vote for Trump just because the guy they were going to vote for because they didn’t want to vote for Trump tells them to vote for Trump? A guy for whom they never really felt much enthusiasm, but he wasn’t Trump or Biden. Or do they either not vote or vote for some third party candidate, assuming there are any left on the ballot.

Of course they won’t all do the same thing, but my guess is that a substantial number simply won’t vote, will write someone in, or vote for any available third party candidate. They were prepared to throw their vote away before he dropped out, so there’s no reason to think they won’t be willing to throw their votes away now.

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For sale to the highest bidder

Friday, August 16, 2024

I’m not sure how much attention this story is getting, but it should be featured in the media rather prominently. It appears that RFK Jr., has concluded that he is not, after all, going to win the presidency, so he is up for selling his endorsement to the highest bidder, the consideration being a cabinet post in the new administration of whatever party happens to win.

The Harris people have told him to shove it, or as he put it “We’ve been told that they have no interest in talking with me.”

The Trump folks have, of course, not said no, but they have not yet gotten to yes. If the current polling trend continues, I’m guessing they will get to yes, promising him the “public health leadership” post (Just where he could do the most harm) he’s asking for in return for him delivering his supporters to Trump. Months ago the thinking was that he’d draw supporters from Biden, but it has become clear over the last few months that he’s drawing votes from Trump. Trump is showing signs of panic already, and it’s practically a sure bet that he’ll grasp at any straw to try to win. After all, just because he’d have to promise Kennedy a cabinet post, he wouldn’t actually have to give it to him. Sort of like stiffing your contractors, etc.

I’m sure the Harris folks would prefer that Kennedy remain on the ballot in some of the swing states. He’s already off the ballot in New York, as they have this weird rule against fraud there, but New York is a lock. We want him on the ballot in places like Wisconsin, where all he has to do is draw one or two percent of the whackjobs to hand the state to Harris.

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Primary Day in Groton

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

As I wrote yesterday, I spent the entire day acting as a checker at my local polling place. As I did so, I documented the exciting events of the day. The reader can decide what conclusions to draw about the level of enthusiasm out there for whatever candidate wins this primary. Personally, I think Chris Murphy has very little to worry about. My notes follow. The numbers recited are absolutely authentic. As you will see it was an exciting day:

6:00 AM. The crush to get in is amazing. At least I think it is, though nobody has shown up yet. Sixteen people voted on an early basis iin the course of last week. That’s the entire town, so that’s a good predictor of what we have in store.

6:21 AM. I have finished my first Sudoku. We still await the entry of the first voter.

7:00 AM. The average hourly rate of enthusiastic Republican voters has now reached Zero!

7:25 AM. There is a crush in the other districts. So far FIVE people have voted in the town of Groton. Our district is obviously an outlier, as the others are so crowded.

7:40 AM. Our first voter! However, turns out she’s a Democrat who thought that there was a Democratic primary.

8:00 AM. First crossword completed and yet another Sudoku. We still await our first voter with eagerness. I’m sure there is some mysterious reason why the Republican enthusiasm for their candidates has not shown its face at this polling location. I’m willing to bet that town wide the number of voters has now swelled beyond 10!

8:30 AM. Our first voter arrives.

9:00 AM. The enthusiasm continue, in that we are enthusiastic about the possibility of getting another voter.

9:15 AM. The second voter arrives! Excitement abounds.

10:00 AM approaches. We are putting up a sign near the road so people driving by will know there’s an election today. Who knows, this may double the pace at which people come in to vote.

10:30 AM. The second Democrat arrives. She said that there was a sign that indicated there was a primary for both parties.

10:45 AM. Two voters, all at one time! Husband and wife.

11:30 AM. It is almost noon, and I last ate at 5:00 AM, so, as we said in German class, “Ich habe hunger”. Two more Democrats arrive and leave. The race is tied, 4 Republicans voted to 4 Democrats with nothing to vote for.

12:30 PM. I no longer habe hunger. While I took my brief lunch, we had no customers. The score is still tied.

1:30 PM. Score still tied. No one has voted since 10:45. Most Republicans appear to be fine with whichever non-entity ends up on the ballot. By the way, I haven’t mentioned their names. They are Gerry Smith and Matthew Corey. You’ve heard of them, haven’t you?

1:45 PM The Republicans pull ahead, 5-4.

2:00 PM Democrats tie the score yet again.

2:15 PM Republicans pull ahead 6-5.

2:25 PM Republicans expand their lead to 8-5. The Democrats are letting us down!

2:26 PM It’s a stampede! Yet another Republican.

3:00 PM We anxiously await another voter. However, we have reason to celebrate, as we are no longer the Groton district with the least number of voters. Also, we know that any minute hour we may ascend into double digits.

3:07 PM It was only minutes! 10 voters in a mere ..wait, here’s another! That makes 11. In a mere 9 hours and 10 minutes. More than one an hour. We are having trouble keeping up.

3:45 PM A Democrat and an Independent (who I’ll lump with the Dems), making the score 11-7.

3:55 PM 11-8.

5:05 PM 11-9

5:30 PM The commuters that usually start coming in after work have not yet arrived. It’s a mystery that will never be solved. How can the voters, Republicans though they be, fail to vote in this exciting election between…, oh, see above.

5:55 PM 11-10.

6:00 PM. We poll workers just figured out that so far we have had 1.95035460993% turnout in this district. One more voter, and we’re over 2%!

6:05 PM. The commuter rush has begun! Score is now 12-10. Over 2%!

6:15 PM. A discussion with the other poll workers. How do any of the folks who come in know how to vote, since chances are they’ve never heard of either candidate. Some are lured to the polling place by a sign on the street that says “Vote Here”. That’s why we’ve gotten so many Democrats. Theoretically you could sit here and google the candidates before you vote, but no one has done that. The only information available on the ballot is their names with an asterisk next to the name of the endorsed candidate.

6:20 PM. Another nut job Republican. There’s been a few of them spewing conspiracy garbage implying that the rules in place enable voter fraud. Score now 13-10.

6:40 PM 14-11.

6:50 PM The Republican who just voted is complaining that she wasn’t told about the primary and it’s someone’s fault.

7:40 PM The end approacheth. The score remains the same.

8:00 PM The day is over. There was 4/7th of a poll worker for each voter, meaning the cost to the town of each vote was about $100. (We do get paid) I stay until everything is wrapped up, but I don’t bother to look to see who got the most votes, because who really cares?

UPDATE OF SORTS: I guess I wasn’t thinking last night. (Not unusual) I meant to post this last night.

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There’s a primary tomorrow

Monday, August 12, 2024

I haven’t posted for a while. I can explain. We spent last week in Vermont and my time was filled with family events. Well, not completely, but enough to keep me away from blogging. Also, it’s getting harder and harder to come up with anything that hasn’t already been beaten to death by the blogs I frequent. I mean, guess what? Trump is declining into senility and every time he opens his mouth or vents on Lie (Oops, I mean “Truth”) Social he lies and the mainstream media ignores or downplays it. Latest I’ve seen, lying about the crowds for Kamala at the Detroit airport. Follow the link. Even some of his right wing followers are getting tired of the lies, but unlike if a Democrat did it, the Times will mention it once and then forget it.

Anyway, the purpose of this post is to announce that I will in fact post again tomorrow, though late in the evening with some Connecticut news.

Did you know there’s a primary in Connnecticut tomorrow? There are no local candidates on the ballot here in Groton. It’s a Republican primary only, and I haven’t the slightest idea who is running against who, though I think it’s two whackjobs running against each other for the privilege of getting wiped out by Chris Murphy. I’m sure if I DuckDuckGoed it (I don’t use the monopolist Google) I could find out who they are, but who really cares, and anyway I’ll see a sample ballot tomorrow, so I’ll let my readers know tomorrow.

For the past several years I’ve been a poll worker. On actual election days I’ve worked doing same day registration, but that isn’t available on primary days, so tomorrow I’ll be checking people in as they come to vote. So, it’s my guess that I’ll be spending most of the day reading, drinking tea, playing Sudoku, and doing crosswords, waiting for the very occasional voter to drop by. I will also be doing a play by play, so to speak, keeping track of the number of people who come in, and describing the day in a blog post. I wouldn’t mind posting on the hour, but I don’t think that would sit well with the registrars, so I’ll wait until I get home. It’s a long day. We report at 5:15 AM and leave around 9:00 PM, though we do get a break or two. My guess is that any given worker could take a four hour break tomorrow and no one would miss them. If the total number of voters in my district exceeds 100 I’ll be very surprised. My guess is that most of the folks coming in to vote will be members of the rapidly dwindling Republican Town Committee, since they’re probably the only people in town that know there’s a primary. Looking on the bright side, I do get paid for my time, and maybe I’ll donate my check to Kamala.

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It would be nice, but it ain’t going to happen

Friday, August 2, 2024

I came across this article at Lawyers, Guns & Money recently, and I have to admit that I fervently hope that this speculation turns out to be true. One of the bloggers there, Paul Campos, passed on a tweet from Anthony Scarmucci (of all people) who says we should not be surprised if Trump drops out of the race. Campos goes on to say that it’s unlikely, but possible. Since that would likely leave the Republicans with JD Vance as their candidate, it would be a great thing, but I’m here to tell you it won’t happen.

Trump is incapable of accepting the fact that he could or did lose. He’s proven that over the course of the last four years. But there’s another reason he won’t quit. If he loses, or withdraws, his chances of going to prison skyrocket, and if he’s yesterday’s news, the Supreme Court may very well decide to try to keep whatever shred of respect it has left.

After writing the above, but before posting it, I came across this, which makes some of the same points.

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The return of Friday Night Music

Friday, July 26, 2024

My wife suggested this as an appropriate musical share, given the events of the last week or so.

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So far, so good

Tuesday, July 23, 2024

My last post detailed my reservations about Biden dropping out and the possible media reaction given the likelihood that Kamala would be the candidate to replace him. He dropped out two days later, and so far it looks like most of my fears have not come to pass, and there’s a strong possibility that they won’t.

For one thing, it is quite clear that going forward the Democratic Party will be unified. The only candidate out there other than Kamala is Marianne Williamson, and if she has a single delegate willing to nominate her I’d be surprised. As an aside, we have a friend who’s a delegate, and he forwarded a voicemail he received prior to the withdrawal from the Williamson people asking him to support an open convention. She’s not a threat, and you have to wonder if she’s on some hallucinogenic drug. I also read that Joe Manchin briefly considered putting his name out there, but once again, you’d likely be hard pressed to find a delegate willing to nominate him. He is universally disliked among knowledgeable Democrats, and most delegates are fairly knowledgeable Democrats.

The Republicans, at least so far, appear to be flailing in their response. I really think that trying to play the birther card is unlikely to work. It didn’t work against Obama and it’s less likely to get traction with her. They’re also ramping up other coded racist slurs, but again, the ones I’ve heard about will only resonate with the racists already in their camp. It’s possible that they’ve become so focused on that base that they’re incapable of understanding how to appeal to the folks who aren’t watching Fox or the other right wing propagandists 24/7.

So far, too, the press seems to be okay, though that may soon change. Maybe they figure that they owe her a few days of relatively positive coverage, since they’ve been pushing for Biden to pull out so they’ll leave her alone while they take their victory lap.

I hope I’m not looking too much on the bright side. In any event, if my previous post turns out to be all wrong, I’ll be delighted.

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The present situation

Friday, July 19, 2024

I haven’t posted for several weeks, as I am in the sort of catatonic state in which so many non-fascists find themselves these days. Like so many, I’m stunned that the media has decided to do its best to get the genius re-elected. I won’t go into detail about the one sided coverage. I’ll only point out that if Biden, two weeks ago, had wondered aloud whether he’d rather die from being eaten by a shark or electrocution we would be reading and hearing about it still.

This post is about Biden, and the movement to have him drop his candidacy. Had such a movement begun 2 years ago led by top Democrats confidentially pressuring Biden to drop out, and had he done so before the primary season, I would have no problem.

At the moment, it doesn’t seem feasible for a number of reasons. I may be wrong, but it appears to me that none of the Democrats calling on Biden to withdraw have clearly delineated a path forward should he do so. If he drops out, presumably his delegates are free to back whomever they please. He cannot order them to back anyone in particular, and even if he could it’s not clear that it would be a good idea. If any of the politicians calling for him to withdraw have named a replacement, outlined a strategy to obtain a unanimous (or nearly unanimous) convention endorsement for that replacement, or dealt with the fact that said replacement, basically the result of a back room deal, might alienate large groups of Democratic voters.

So, if he drops out, we’re likely to have a battle at the convention.

Harris would be the obvious choice to succeed. After all she is vice president. But the media has had it in for her ever since she was put on Biden’s ticket. There’s no question in my mind but that they would jump at the chance to amplify whatever racist talking points (hedged in order to allow them to deny the racism sufficiently to satisfy the media) the Republicans trot out. Those talking points are likely to be more effective against her, a relatively unknown quantity, than the anti-Biden talking points have been against him. What would be needed would be the unthinkable from today’s politicians: a decision on Harris’s part to put the interests of the country over her own, and join in strongly endorsing a candidate who is as bullet proof as possible.

In any event, if Biden withdraws, there’s a good chance we’ll come out of the convention with a fractured party resulting in more stories about Democrats in disarray.

As with so many problems the Democrats run into, this one is somewhat self created. Sure, Biden did not do well in the debate. At the same time, Trump lied whenever he opened his mouth. Let’s reverse the situation and pretend that it was Trump that underperformed according to the media’s definition and Biden that lied with every word he spoke. The Republicans would, in unison, have 1) insisted that Trump won the debate no matter what the media or pollsters might say, and 2) attack the media for failing to concentrate on Biden’s lies. The Democrats, of course, did none of those things, nor are they engaging in a concentrated attack on the media for ignoring Trump’s clear signs of senility, such as those he showed last night during his acceptance speech.

There are a few Democrats attacking the media, but not nearly enough. The media is currently willing to give a pass to Trump and other Republicans in part because the Republicans spent years attacking the “liberal media” for telling the truth about Republicans. The media found it easier to stop telling the truth than to fight back. It’s one of the reasons we are now on the brink of fascism.

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Supreme Injustice

Thursday, June 27, 2024

In the last few days the Supreme Court has legalized bribery, (so long as the bribe is paid afterthe public official does the dirty work, and made it virtually impossible for administrative agencies to enforce the laws they are supposed to enforce. As to the bribery decision, how can you blame them, since they had to legalize the precise types of bribes they themselves are taking. Tomorrow we may learn how they pronounce Donald Trump immune from prosecution while assuring us that Democrats will not enjoy the same immunity. All this, or most of it, is being justified by a perverted reading of history. First, pronounce that whatever the founders intended and understood to be constitutional is constitutional, then make up history to support your contention that you know precisely what the founders must have thought, and who really cares that conditions change, something that many of the founders understood to be the case.

The objective, or course, is to make all right wing fever dreams come true.

It occurred to me that there is a way for them to do that quite effectively, and I wonder if this is coming.

Few non-lawyers (we all had to take constitutional law) are likely aware that there was a time when the Bill of Rights did not restrict the states but restricted only the federal government. The federal government, for instance, could not prescribe a state religion, but individual states could do so. If my memory serves me right, the state of Connecticut had a state religion until some around 1830.

All that changed after the Civil War, as a result of the enactment of the 14th Amendment. The Supreme Court ruled, one by one, that provisions of the Bill of Rights were “incorporated” into the Fourteenth Amendment, largely as a result of the due process clause in said Amendment. Some of these cases are now over a hundred years old. But ancient and respected precedent means nothing to this court, and it would be so convenient to overrule those cases, so the red states could force religion on their people (after all it’s what Sam Alito wants), regulate their speech so only right wingers can talk, and police their behaviors in other ways that are plainly unconstitutional under the Bill of Rights. The provisions of the Bill or Rights were incorporated on a case by case basis. The court could easily overrule the cases with which it disagrees, which is pretty much all of them, since why should Americans have the right to free speech, freedom of (and from) religion, etc.

The only problem the court might have is figuring out a way to decide that while none of the other rights are incorporated into the Fourteenth Amendment, those allegedly secured in the Second Amendment are incorporated. Incorporation of the Second Amendment is, arguably, the least justifiable of the incorporation cases, given that pesky “well regulated militia” language the court has always seen fit to ignore. But they can do it! Any court that can compare a $13,000.00 payoff to tipping a mail carrier can find a reason why being able to carry a machine gun is a more sacred right than being able to choose your own religion or choose not to have one foisted on you at all.

AFTERWORD: It occurs to me that I shouldn’t be giving them any ideas, but no right wingers read this blog, so far as I know, so I figure it’s okay.

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Call them what they are

Monday, June 24, 2024

I am in the process of reading Radical Connecticut by Andy Piascik and Steve Thornton. I was struck by this paragraph in the chapter titled “It Can’t Happen Here”, which discusses the performance of Sinclair Lewis’s play of that name in Connecticut:

Americans in the 1930s were being groomed to accept fascism as a macho solution to the troubles faced by the United States. Lewis’s It Can’t Happen Here was a roadblock to that disturbing movement. A quote attributed to Lewis describes the danger he wanted to capture: “When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross.” …As Lewis wrote in his novel: “In America the struggle was befogged by the fact that the worst Fascists were they who disowned the word “Fascism” and preached… Constitutional and Traditional American Liberty.”

If anything, the quote attributed to Lewis (it may actually be a misattribution) describes the present moment more than it did the thirties, for the simple reason that the prospect of a fascist takeover is far more possible today than it was at that time. Neither of the major parties was taken over by fascists in the thirties. Today, the Republican Party is full on fascist, as are several members of the Supreme Court. As was the case then, and as Lewis pointed out, our present day Fascists also eschew the term Fascism, preferring to call themselves Christian Nationalists.

Sadly, as is their wont, the Democrats and the left generally have not chosen to call a fascist a fascist. Just as we let the anti-abortionists call themselves “pro-life”, and even used that term to refer to them, we are referring to these Fascists by the terminology they have chosen.

Let’s break it down. I’m not a believer anymore, but I still hold an advanced degree in religion that I earned at Our Lady of Sorrows Grammar School. There is nothing Christian about a group that trades in hate as does the Republican Party and its affiliated Fascist splinter groups. The term “Nationalist” may be a different story, but the fact is that to those not highly engaged in history or politics, it puts a positive spin on things. Yet even on the blogs I read, most written by fairly astute lefty types, the term “Christian Nationalist” is used to describe these people. Most people, even those who don’t take much interest in politics, know that fascism is bad. It is therefore incumbent upon us to call these people what they are.

Also, I recommend Radical Connecticut. It’s been a fun read. It mainly consists of chapters that may be three or four pages long, so I’m reading one or two a day while I have other books in process.

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