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Always a downside

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Zippy mourns the passing of the Bush Era (click to make it legible):

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Has Al Qaeda been defeated?

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Juan Cole, who usually knows of what he speaks, says that Al Qaeda has been defeated:

It is a dangerous thing for an analyst to say, because obviously radical Muslim extremists may at some point set off some more bombs and then everyone will point fingers and say how wrong I was.

So let me be very clear that I do not mean that radical Muslim extremism has ceased to exist or that there will never be another bombing at their hands.

I mean the original al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda as a historical, concrete movement centered on Usama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, with the mujahideen who fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s at their core. Al-Qaeda, the 55th Brigade of the Army of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under the Taliban. That al-Qaeda. The 5,000 fighters and operatives or whatever number they amounted to.

That original al-Qaeda has been defeated.

Usamah Bin Laden has not released an original videotape since about four years ago. There was that disaster with the cgi black beard. There was the old footage spliced in by al-Sahab. But nothing new on videotape. I conclude that Bin Laden, if he is alive, is so injured or disfigured that his appearance on videotape would only discourage any followers he has left.

The entire article is a must read. Among other things, Cole asserts that an increased presence in Afghanistan, something that Obama has been pushing and Bush and McCain have now embraced, will be counterproductive. The Taliban, he says, are not interested in international terrorism, though they might, again, provide safe harbor to those who are.

Obama’s sabre rattling on Afghanistan is, in my opinion, the worst position he has taken. I can understand why he’s done it, but it will, if he is elected, come back to haunt him if he follows through.

So, according to Cole, despite ourselves we have “defeated” Al Qaeda”, though in fact Al Qaeda’s own weaknesses probably had a lot to do with its demise. But this is a victory that we’re not likely to hear much about. Like any inept parent, Bush/McCain etc. need a bogeyman to keep people frightened, so they will do what they’re told. If we declared victory it would be all the harder to justify the continued expense of the Iraq and Afghanistan adventures.

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On to Iran? Maybe not right away.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

A reader (I assume he’s a reader) passed along this story (Israel asks U.S. for arms, air corridor to attack Iran) from an Israeli Newspaper, Haaretz.com, the essence of which is that the Israel was seeking U.S. cooperation to clear the way for an attack on Iran, but that the U.S. refused, buying Israel off instead with more defensive weapons. The reader suggested that we might be in for a November or December surprise, based, I guess, on this paragraph:

At the beginning of the year, the Israeli leadership still considered it a reasonable possibility that Bush would decide to attack Iran before the end of his term.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in private discussions, even raised the possibility that the U.S. was considering an attack in the transition period between the election in November and the inauguration of the new president in January 2009.

The article implies that this possibility has vanished. Apparently, Bush wants to consolidate the victory in Iraq that only he and McCain can see. I suppose, as well, that it would have been difficult for even Bush to maintain the myth of Iraqi sovereignty were the U.S. to open Iraqi air space to allow the Israelis to attack the Iranian government with which the Iraqis have brotherly relations. It seems likely, as well, that an attack on Iran through Iraq would fan the violence in Iraq back to pre-surge levels. (For the record, there is still plenty of violence in Iraq).

For once it may be the case that Bush is doing the right thing, although probably much against his own will. This situation illustrates the way we have, in Iraq, been working at cross purposes to ourselves. Saddam was never really a threat to Israel, except when he was pushed to extremes. He acted as a counterweight to Iran, and it didn’t cost us anything. If and when we leave Iraq, we will leave a country that will, if the present leadership persists in power, rush into the arms of Iran. That wouldn’t really matter very much, if we could develop a mature and nuanced position toward Iran, but we seem incapable of doing that.

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Friday Night Music-Traffic

Friday, September 12, 2008

Dear Mr. Fantasy, 1972. Audio and video not quite synced, but definitely a live performance.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_nwbTeIN4Y[/youtube]

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Economic Disaster coming

Friday, September 12, 2008

Economists Warn Anti-Bush Merchandise Market Close To Collapse

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You may have heard it here first

Friday, September 12, 2008

While perusing today’s Times, I came across this article (Investors Turn Gaze to A.I.G.), in which we hear the first rumblings about what will no doubt be the next Lehman Brothers: American International Group. This is yet another financial services company that is hemorrhaging money, partly because it was systematically looted by its management, who have now been forced to disgorge a part of their ill gotten gains, but mostly because it was betting heavily against the inevitable: the day when the bill would come due and the defaults would start coming in a market riddled with debt that would never be repaid:

Red ink has been flowing at A.I.G. It reported a loss of $5.3 billion for the second quarter, after a $7.8 billion loss in the previous quarter. The main problem is sophisticated contracts, called credit default swaps, that A.I.G.’s financial products unit sold to investors.

The contracts allow buyers to bet on the creditworthiness of debt obligations backed by mortgages. As home values have fallen, the values of those underlying mortgages have declined. A.I.G. has had to reduce the value of the swaps on its books.

I wrote about credit default swaps in February ( Another economic mess coming). There are (or were at the time I first wrote about them) $45 Trillion dollars worth (well, maybe not worth, but you know what I mean) of these things on the market, an amount that exceeds the value of all the stock on the stock market, which means it exceeds, pretty much, the value of everything. As defaults increase, the calls on the sellers of these instruments will increase. They in turn will go belly up, but not before the people who grew fat selling these investments ride off into the sunset, with their ill gotten gains safely stowed away. Sure they may lose a few millions in the downdraft, but they’ll still have more socked away than you and I will ever see. We taxpayers will, no doubt, pay to clean up this mess as well.

There is nothing more infuriating then the oft repeated claims of these Wall Streeters that no one could have seen this coming. Anyone who wasn’t raking in big bucks when the getting was good could have seen this coming.

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Censorship

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Via Americablog, yet again.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZII0GjcJMus[/youtube]

Librarians have been silent heroes in a lot of ways over the course of the last seven years. They resisted the Patriot Act’s Big Brother is Watching provisions requiring disclosure of library patron reading habits, and they have consistently opposed attempts at book banning of the type Palin was contemplating.

People in this country can be awfully stupid, but I think they still have an aversion to book banning. It’s the type of thing we were all taught as tykes that Nazis and Communists did. It’s good to see ABC getting on this story.

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Upside down

Thursday, September 11, 2008

This is not the way it’s supposed to work. Local newspeople are supposed to be in awe of presidential candidates and are supposed to toss softballs. National newspeople are supposed to be the fearsome interlocutors. Check out John McCain’s lame responses to fairly aggressive questions from a newsman on WCSH in Portland, Maine. Note, by the way, McCain’s use of what has become Standard Operating Procedure for Republicans. He filibusters every question, going on and on repeating himself (lying, for the most part) in order to burn up time. Via Americablog:

[youtube]http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=-q6LMsc7iic[/youtube]

Filed in Media, Presidential Politics, The Real McCain | | Comments (0)

Contrast and compare

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Over at Americablog, John Aravosis writes (I quote in full):

It’s time for someone in the media to ask who this cynical liar is running for president under John McCain’s name, because he’s not John McCain.

Actually, it is John McCain. He is now, and never has, been any different than any other Republican. In 2000 he just figured he could get some mileage by pretending to have integrity. That didn’t work, so he’s trying full bore sleaze.

But return with me now to those thrilling days of yesteryear, for they help make Aravosis’ main point. Remember all those articles, including some in the New York Times, pontificating about Al Gore’s problems with the truth, all of which problems were, in fact, grounded in lies spread by Republicans. See the Daily Howler’s archives for complete and exhaustive details on that.

McCain’s problems with the truth are real and objectively verifiable. Al Gore never said he invented the internet, but John McCain did say that Sarah Palin sold a state plane on eBay at a profit, he repeatedly lies about Obama’s tax plan, he lied when he said that Obama wanted to teach kindergartners about sex before they learned to read, and he is breaking out new lies about Obama every day. They aren’t even pretending to have facts to back up what they say anymore.

Will we be treated to frank and accurate reporting about John McCain’s problems with the truth? For that matter, will we be seeing articles about the transformation from John McCain, man of integrity, to John McCain, serial liar and the man who approves of the sleaziest ads in American political history? No we will not. Why? Because there’s a vital difference between the Gore story and the McCain story. Let’s turn to a representative of the press to explain why we won’t be hearing about McCain’s problems with the truth:

Well, the problem with that story is that it’s fact-based, and fact-based is clearly not as interesting as fiction-based.

UPDATE: From Robert Greenwald:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IH0xzsogzAk[/youtube]

Filed in Media, Presidential Politics | | Comments (1)

Upcoming events

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

My wife and I just returned from a meeting at Waterford Democratic Headquarters, where Andrew Bray, Courtney’s field co-ordinator, went over the ground rules for phone and door to door canvassing. I confess to being there under somewhat false pretenses. I have hated the phone since I was small, and I can’t stand going door to door. I put out vibes that say: slam the door on me. No one actually has, but probably only out of pity. However, my wife rates as the genuine article, at least with the phones, so she gave me some cover. From the sound of things it looks like the phone polling is going well for Courtney, and they are open to doing polling for Obama as well.

It also sounds like we’ll have a fine turnout for the Courtney-Sullivan debate on October 7th. Should be fun.

Tony Basilica, from New London, delivered a fine rant in favor of Democrats pushing back against Republican sleaze. I’ve invited him to reduce it to writing and put it here. Who knows, maybe he will.

Meanwhile, I am proud to day that, at least at the moment, the Groton Headquarters puts both Waterford and New London to shame. We are up and running: phones, cable and internet, not to mention a full size cardboard Obama cutout. Yesterday a fellow came in and loaned us a high definition television for the duration. Waterford just got phones, hasn’t connected their internet, and doesn’t have any campaign lit. New London doesn’t have phones. Groton Rules!

We Groton Folks can celebrate our superiority, and the folks from Waterford and New London can see how it’s done, at our Headquarters Grand Opening on Sunday, September 14th, from 2:00 to 5:00 PM. Headquarters is at 303 Route 12, next to the GEICO office. This is a fundraiser, sort of, with the suggested donation being $10.00.

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